Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:316616, 10/31/04

10/27: (315355) (*COMMENT*)
Do you think we hit some resistance here at 1965 and then resume the march to 2000? If we can take October high of 1971 we should be in good shape but we're definitely hitting some resistance here.
(*END*)

I think we will take the 1965, and possibly even close within 5 (+/-)of 1971. We may not make the 2000/2025 I had by election day, but I think we should get pretty close.


10/27: (315637) (*COMMENT*)
Goes that mean you are calling a top Today if it reaches 1965?
(*END*)

Nope, just reducing exposure since we have covered more than 50% of the target move I had from 1900 to about 2000. Take profits when offered.


10/27: (315380) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, how much of a retrench do you see from the 2000 range before another assault? Do we test 1900 again, or not? Thanks.....
(*END*)

Depends how far we go up, if we reach 2025, the retrench could go to around 1940 or so.


10/27: (315467) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Any forseen deviations for the roadmap for the remainder of the year?(assuming no actual terror incidents)

The reason I ask is at a projection of 2,275 by Jan. 1 from here is a whopping 15% jump.

With the turnips projected short term relapse coming up, I assume this would be "the" time to load up (1945 +/-)
(*END*)

Not by January 1, that is the peak I expect between January 1 and February 20th or so.


10/27: (315490) (*COMMENT*)
"Did you cash in some healthy profits on LSCP?"

No, Zeev, did you? It looks like the weekly chart shows more left in this move ... although I doubt it will be this week ... <G>

Ken
(*END*)

I took out 40% of my position, still have three serving left, got to take profits when offered. Cash gone above 25% and will rise more here.


10/27: (315505) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Any forseen deviations for the roadmap for the remainder of the year?(assuming no actual terror incidents)

The reason I ask is at a projection of 2,275 by Jan. 1 from here is a whopping 15% jump.

With the turnips projected short term relapse coming up, I assume this would be "the" time to load up (1945 +/-)
(*END*)

Actually a more refined dating has the peak between January 20 and February 2nd. In between I have a local low on November 12 (Jim has a turn date November 24th I believe, so we are about two week apart. The truth is that it will depend a lot on the election, if it is not contested seriously and by Nov 3rd we know who is the next president, there should not be too much problems with the normal cycles. A contested election may wreck the whole picture.


10/29: (316060) (*COMMENT*)
Disciple, I am getting the feeling that this market is going to continue up (on balance) into late November or early December. Zeev has a "local low" due November 12th but the rally off of that low ought to be explosive and there are an awful lot of nervous folks around and a lot of people shorting stocks and as they cover, that could provide extra fuel to the up move.

Some of the cycle work, that I do, indicates the trend is up into early December.

Several posters have mentioned a possible early Tax Loss selling season, so perhaps the "Theory of Contrary Opinion" will prevail and we will get a more traditional Tax Loss selling season into the days after Christmas.

We Will Know In The Fullness Of Time

Jim
(*END*)

Jim, I think it all may depend on the elections, if it ends up with the courts, then we may have a November of discontent. If a decisive victory, then that local low of Nov 12 should be contained around 1940 (and still assume us going above 2000 before that...).