It's not a matter of whether they hit a big well - the acreage value is independent of their drilling competance because if they can't hit the big well, a better operator will buyout the acreage and do it for them. CHK has already proven the acreage is highly valuable with some of their wells nearby TENG's acreage. The way I see it, this thing is worth at least $2000 per acre on 30,000 acres or $60mm total - take out 30mm of debt and that leaves you with $3/share of equity value - in reality they could be asking $3000 per acre (and management owns 65% of stock so they're totally aligned with shareholders) - not to mention that their credit facility maturity next summer creates a catalyst for this transaction to happen sooner rather than later
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