General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP)

[justthefactsmam]

simon was on cnbc:

well, simon did just do his interview on cnbc and he was asked about general growth. simon said that his company was in a position to partner with institutional money to make a bid for general growth and the way he spoke about it appeared that he was interested in bidding for the whole company.

he responded there might be one or two entities capable of entering a bidding war against simon for ggp. all of this presupposes that ggp wants to take a buyout. this is the bucksbaum's family business in which they still hold a 25% interest. combined with ackman's 25% control i just don't see ggp being sold unless these ackman and the bucksbaums want to cut and run.

while i do believe that the interest and an expected run by simon and possibly others at the company will drive up the price, i just think that will serve to get the stock back up to par quicker than it might otherwise have done without this interest.

when ggp emerges, the market should be significantly better than it was when they entered bk. that means asset values will be better. while that will not be reflected on ggp's balance sheet (because they carry their assets at cost, not market value), it will definitely show up in the pps. that means that ggp will be able to tap the equity market if/when they need to.

i do think this is a goose which will lay many golden eggs for ackman, the bucksbaums, and the shareholders but that won't happen for those of us who hold shares if that goose is sold.

the generational opportunity they are talking about is what we have in our hands now. if sold, that opportunity will belong to someone else.

i just think ackman will take the very long-term view of this company as will the bucksbaums and not sell.

any way it goes, the next couple of weeks and months will be volatile and interesting. hopefully israel won't bomb iran and that there will be no other earthshaking geopolitical bombshells.