Here is what I hear:
THE DEC. CONF. CALL WILL BE WORTH WAITING FOR. I hear the Company will use Dec. CC to lay out its 2010 roadmap with a level of detail and clarity not seen in prior conf. calls.
With the endorsement of Bavi’s novel MOA by the likes of Drs. Chabner and Garnick, folks in the investment banking world as well as the BP world are now paying more attention to PPHM. With Garnick helping to beat the drums this winter, the Company could be ready to raise capital at much higher prices this spring as Bavi Ph II cancer data rolls in and Bavi 11.31 anti-viral moves into clinical trials with government support.
The Bavi relationship with Duke, CHAVI and Barton Haynes has deepened and expanded in important ways. Fully-human Bavi 11.31 is expected to start anti-viral clinical trials in first half of 2010.
More than half the Bavi cancer patients are still alive in each of the three Ph II trials, and that’s why we haven’t heard Overall Survival data yet. FDA is very interested in Bavi cancer data, because the data is stong on its own and also because Garnick and Chabner are now promoting the Bavi platform. Definitive Ph III U.S. lung trial will start in Q1 of 2010. FDA may give accelerated approval process if early results look to be same as in Ph II.
The guy who posted a few weeks ago about Garnick’s interest in using Avid to start a “biosimilars” manufacturing program was on to something that could translate quickly into new Avid revenues (and possibly be the basis for private placement capital raise for Avid).
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Here is my personal opinion:
A quick fix for pps in next few months is unlikely. Yes, a new round of gov’t funding for anti-viral programs could happen in next few months, and that would clearly help pps. But Cotara bidder would have to increase its price substantially to bring PPHM back to the table.
So we are left to wait on: infamous Duke publication (which is still coming but at a time of Dr. Haynes’ choosing); Bavi Ph II cancer data (which could be delayed until ASCO); and effects of Dr. Garnick being part of the road show this winter.
On balance, it seems like we lost one and won one. Failure to close Cotara deal was a big loss. But bringing on heavy-hitters like Chabner and Garnick may give the Company the credibility and major-league endorsement that institutional buyers want to see. Increased institutional interest would also help explain the recent increase in bashing volume and intensity.
AI
