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Re: Naim post# 20050

Wednesday, 10/27/2004 3:22:21 PM

Wednesday, October 27, 2004 3:22:21 PM

Post# of 45574
NAIM

I believe USCA went from $4.50 to $18.75 (pre-split) based on the shorts trying to cover the dividends. The move occurred literally the day of the dividend distribution. It's all guesswork but I believe there is still much covering left on USCA, but I believe the shorts are getting "reprieves" on the timeframe for covering. I have no evidence to back that other than I simply believe the move to $18.75 was too coincidental and I believe the volume was not enough to have covered the short position I believe exists.

Thus, I believe if the same thing happens to GEMM, we should see a spike after the first dividend distribution. And possibly an even larger spike after the second GEMM distribution. But again, it's all guesswork. I just see CMKX as having taken much longer than anyone expected and I already own plenty. So there's no reason in my book that it might not take STLL a lot longer. In the mean time, I will hedge by going in on USCA and GEMM in the hopes that dividend covering will lift both stocks continually for awhile. The risk on GEMM is that they still may be able to manipulate it up until the distribution. And then who knows, maybe even after that for a bit. But ultimately I do believe they will do to GEMM what I think they had to do to USCA. We'll see if I"m right. I consider this a highly speculative, high-risk move, but I'm willing to put my money down on it. If I'm right, I will be able to flip USCA and GEMM and purchase way more CMKX than I could today (assuming the pps holds at .0002).

Again, these are just my personal investment decisions. How anyone plays these stocks is up to them.

Z

As always, these are my personal opinions.

Hopefully nobody in here is investing anything but "fun" money that they can afford to gamble with.

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