cholan...
I am not sure what you mean by TSM being "the last nail" or the time frame you are using. If, however, you mean that TSM's announcement was the last of the bad news for the sector or that the equipment stocks have found a bottom here, I sincerely doubt both ideas. Both UMC's warning and capex cut and KLAC's warning both have come since. I believe that over the next 6 months or longer there will be a fair amount more bad news than good out of the equipment stocks, with warnings, lowered estimates, more layoffs (time to cut loose some of the bloated management cadre), more large chargeoffs, and other assorted ills being common - some of the same will be common in the chip sector also. I look for some attrition (some of these companies do not have the reserves to survive a long slow period) and probably a few mergers and acquisitions.
This sector has been among the last to fall, but it is not done yet, in my opinion, and the fundamentals are beginning to deteriorate again.
mlsoft
