jrintl, I hope you don't mind if I chime in. I've been asking friends and aquaintances who are part of sub-groups, who their group is voting for and why. Among many, I asked my mortgage broker. His answer: I've been a Republican all my life but I can't vote for a liar. He said he is disappointed in his party, that it isn't the same as it used to be. He went into the whole "getting us into war" thing. I was shocked at his response. It's hard to change.
Then there's the cell phone theory! The youth have cells, not home phones, and pollsters don't call cell phones. Maybe that get out the youth vote push will mean something. Dunno.
Personally, I still think the incumbent will prevail. The Weekly Reader says so.