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[The Cheap Investor]

World Oil Demand Growth to Outpace Supply in 2010: Poll

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Growing world oil use will likely outpace the rate of new supplies in 2010, eroding the huge stockpiles of crude which have mounted around the world since the start of the global economic crisis.

According to a Reuters poll of ten top oil-tracking analysts and organizations, oil demand is predicted to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year to 85.9 million bpd.

At the same time, the rise in production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) from OPEC members is seen growing by just 800,000 bpd in total.

Click here for Reuters table of results

Click here for a graphic illustrating the changes: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/119/OIL_EZPOLL1109.gif

Click here for a spreadsheet on supply and demand

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/OIL-POLL-NOV09.pdf "The key question for prices is supply," Barclays C

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/OIL-POLL-NOV09.pdf "The key question for prices is supply," Barclays C apital analyst Costanzo Jacazio said.

"2010 is really a bridging year -- if the economies continue to perform as well as they have been doing during the early stages of the recovery, then I think by 2011 we'll be seeing the demand numbers at or above where they were in 2008."

Non-OPEC output is seen averaging 51 million bpd in 2010, up from 50.8 million bpd, while OPEC output of NGLs -- which are not subject to the producer group's production quotas -- are expected to rise to 5.6 million bpd, up by more than 20 percent since 2008.

If OPEC members can maintain current adherence levels to present output quotas, with group output including Iraq assessed around 28.9 million bpd, crude oil inventories could fall by almost 150 million barrels next year.

Demand for OPEC's crude is seen at 29.3 million bpd.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9162381