Zeev's Turnips Talk Politics (ZTTP)

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BUSH-CHENEY AD FACT CHECK
Here's the fundamental choice before voters: hope versus fear, real plans versus empty promises, a fresh start versus more of the same. The American people want a new direction after four years of George Bush's failed policies, and that's exactly what John Kerry's going to give them.


AD TITLE: "The Choice"
DATE: 10/25/04
TYPE: 30sec TV
PAID FOR BY: Bush-Cheney '04
BUSH-CHENEY NEGATIVE ATTACK AD SCRIPT:

Voice Over: "President Bush and Congressional allies: strong leadership to protect America; tax relief; common sense healthcare; strengthen and protect Social Security."

Voice Over: "John Kerry and liberal allies: higher taxes; voting to tax Social Security benefits; government run healthcare; a record of slashing intelligence and reckless defense cuts."

Voice Over: "Alone in the booth....why take the risk?"

FALSE RHETORIC FROM DESPERATE BUSH CAMPAIGN

Voice Over: "President Bush and Congressional allies: strong leadership to protect America; tax relief; common sense healthcare; strengthen and protect Social Security."

THE FACTS - BUSH'S FAILED HEALTH CARE RECORD

Bush's Health Plan Would Not Even Make Up Half the Ground Lost Under Bush. According to an independent study by Kenneth Thorpe of Emory University, Bush's plan would cover just 2.4 million people by 2008; less than half the 5.2 million who have lost health insurance since 2000. Bush has provided no independent estimates to corroborate the large increases in coverage he has been promising. According to the Washington Post, "But when the Bush-Cheney team was asked to provide documentation, the hard data fell far short of the claims, a gap supported by several independent analyses." [Kenneth Thorpe, 5/5/04, sph.emory.edu; Washington Post, 8/22/04; National Journal, 8/4/04; White House Press Release, 9/2/04]

Bush's HSA Proposal Will Raise Health Care Costs And Increase The Uninsured. As healthier people join HSAs, the people remaining in comprehensive coverage will be sicker and more expensive to insure, driving their premiums higher. Some employers will use HSAs to drop health insurance for their employees or reduce their contribution. Independent estimates suggest that Bush's HSA proposal would leave more than 1.4 million workers currently insured without coverage. [Journal of the American Medical Association, 6/5/96; Urban Institute, April 1996; American Academy of Actuaries, 5/95; Consumers Union, 8/10/00; Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 5/10/04]

Bush's Plan Will Raise Premiums for 4 out of 5 Small Businesses. During his presidency, health care costs have increased 64 percent for families. The CBO estimated that AHPs could raise premiums for 4 out of 5 small businesses that keep traditional insurance. A study by Mercer found over 1 million Americans would lose health insurance coverage. [CBO, January 2000; Mercer Risk, Finance and Insurance] [National Journal, 1/24/04, 8/4/04; Consumer Federation of America, 7/17/02; Weiss Ratings, 6/3/03; Mercer Risk, June 2003; Kaiser Family Foundation]

Opponents of AHPs Include Range of Groups Including the National Governors Association, American Diabetes Association, National Council of La Raza, and 41 State Attorneys General. Over 470 local and national groups including the National Governors Association, 41 state attorneys general, American Diabetes Association and National Council of La Raza oppose the legislation from consumers groups to state officials to insurance groups to physicians to local chambers of commerce to labor groups. [http://www.sbhealthequity.org/uploads/master_list.pdf]

THE FACTS - BUSH'S "JANUARY SURPRISE" WILL PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY & RAISE THE RETIREMENT AGE

Bush Social Security Plan Would Push Retirement Age to 72. "FORTUNE has learned that a new reform idea is percolating within the Social Security Administration. … Monthly Social Security benefits would remain what they are today, but the age at which future retirees qualified for them would be delayed. Today you can qualify for early, reduced benefits at age 62; that age would gradually increase to 68. The retirement age for full benefits would be pushed back from 65 to 72." [Phillip Longman column, Fortune, 10/18/04]

Bush Plan Costs $2 Trillion - According to His Own Advisers. The Economic Report of the President 2004 says that "personal retirement accounts widen the deficit by design." Chart 6-4 shows the "change in the deficit" as a share of nominal GDP, these numbers correspond to $2 trillion in nominal dollars. The precise numbers are available in a Memorandum from the Social Security actuaries, they show that the current dollar cost is $2.004 trillion from 2005-14. [Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President 2004, pp. 143-144 and Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary, "Estimates of Financial Effects for Three Models Developed by the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security," 1/31/02]

Bush's Plan Would Cut Benefits by Up to 45 Percent. According to CBO, the President's plan "would reduce expected retirement benefits relative to scheduled benefits for all later cohorts, even when the benefits paid from IAs under CSSS Plan 2 are included ... For example, benefits for the 1980s birth cohort would be … 30 percent lower for the middle and highest quintiles, and benefits for the 2000s cohort would be … 45 percent lower for the middle and highest quintiles." [CBO, "Long-term Analysis of Plan 2 of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security," 7/21/2004, pp. 15]

FALSE NEGATIVE ATTACKS FROM DESPERATE BUSH CAMPAIGN

Voice Over: "John Kerry and liberal allies: higher taxes; voting to tax Social Security benefits; government run healthcare; a record of slashing intelligence and reckless defense cuts."

THE FACTS - BUSH'S GREAT DISTORTION OF KERRY'S PRO-GROWTH, PRO-MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUTS

"Gross Exaggeration," "Simply Isn't True," "Misleading," "Bogus Number"& "Procedural Trickery," "Not Quite Right, "Unfair", "Ridiculous", "Phony," "False," "Padded," "Misleading," "So Off Base," "Bogus" "Magic Number," "Exists Only In Minds Of Spinners" "Checkered" "Inaccurate," "Incredulous" Fails "Straight Face Test:" These are some of the reactions of a wide range of newspapers and independent experts. [ABC World News Tonight, 10/4/04; NBC Nightly News, 10/5/04; Washington Post, 5/31/04; Cincinnati Inquirer, 5/26/04; NBC Nightly News, 4/6/04; Factcheck.org; Pittsburgh Post Gazette, 5/19/04; Kinsley, Washington Post, 3/24/04; Political Finance, The Newsletter, May 2004; Charleston Gazette, 4/12/04;Charleston Gazette, 4/11/04; AP, 4/9/04; 4/8/04; USA Today, 4/6/04; LA Times, 3/30/04; New York Times, 5/25/04; factcheck.org]

The Truth About Kerry's Record: The truth? Kerry has gone on the legislative record over 640 times for lower taxes. [Congressional Quarterly Votes; CQ's Congress And The Nation; CQ Almanacs; Senate Republican Policy Committee Vote Analysis; Congressional Research Service Bill Summaries (via thomas.loc.gov), bill texts (via thomas.loc.gov)]

John Kerry Supports Twice As Much In New Middle-Class Tax Cuts as George Bush. John Kerry supports twice as much in new middle class tax cuts as George Bush. In total, he is proposing $419 billion in new pro-family, pro-jobs tax cuts - more than twice as much as the new tax cuts George Bush is proposing. And all of Kerry's tax cuts are fully paid for by rolling back the Bush tax cuts on families making over $200,000 and closing corporate loopholes. These tax cuts include: College Opportunity Tax Credit of up to $4,000 on college tuition costs, a childcare tax credit of up to $1,000 to help families pay for childcare expenses, $177 billion in tax credits to make health care more affordable, and a new jobs tax credit for any new jobs created in manufacturing, other businesses affected by outsourcing, and small businesses. [www.johnkerry.com]

THE FACTS - ONLY JOHN KERRY WILL PROTECT SOCIAL SECURITY

John Kerry Had the Courage to Help Save Medicare by Asking Wealthiest Retirees to Pay Their Fair Share. John Kerry joined President Clinton in asking the wealthiest of retirees to pay their fair share of Social Security taxes as part of the landmark 1993 budget bill that helped create 22.9 million new jobs, cut the deficit by half a trillion dollars and extend the life of the Medicare system - a proposal the New York Times said "took courage." [Vote #57, 3/24/93; Vote #169, 6/24/93; White House Fact Sheet: The Clinton Presidency: Historic Economic Growth, 1/9/01; Washington Post, 4/7/93; New York Times editorial, 3/19/93]

George W. Bush has Never Proposed Repealing the Social Security Tax Increase - and When John Kerry Voted to Do So, Republicans Blocked the Effort. Despite his rhetoric, George W. Bush has never proposed repealing the increase. His failure to lead has shaved 10 years off the life expectancy of Medicare. Just last year, John Kerry voted for an amendment to repeal the 1993 income tax increase on Social Security benefits, cutting taxes by $1,500 for nearly 8 million seniors - but Republicans more interested in tax cuts for the wealthy killed the proposal 49-51. [Vote #149, 5/15/03; Grand Forks Herald, 5/15/03]

Dick Cheney Voted to Raise Social Security Taxes. In 1983, Cheney voted for the Social Security Amendments of 1983. The legislation taxed Social Security benefits, increased taxes for those who are self-employed and increased Social Security payroll taxes. [1983 CQ Almanac p. 219; vote #43, 18-H; HR 1900; tax descriptions from the 1983 Congressional Quarterly Almanac]

Cheney Repeatedly Voted Against Social Security Beneficiaries, Including Limiting Benefits, Raising the Retirement Age and Undermining the Social Security Trust Fund. Cheney voted in 1981 against restoring minimum monthly Social Security benefits. In 1983, he voted to raise the Social Security Retirement Age to 67 starting in 2000. In 1985, he voted against increasing Social Security Cost-of-Living adjustments. In that year he also cast three separate votes against protecting the Social Security Trust Fund. Cheney openly advocated for increasing Social Security taxes and pushing back the retirement age as chair of the House Republican Policy Committee. [1981 CQ Almanac, #178, 44-H; 1983 CQ Almanac, #20 and 22, 10-H; 1985 CQ Almanac, #113, 38-H; 1985 CQ Almanac, #351-353, 110-H; UPI, 11/16/82]

THE FACTS - MEDIA, EXPERTS REJECT BUSH'S FALSE CLAIM OF "GOVERNMENT RUN HEALTHCARE"

"Government Health Care" Charge Called "Fiction"…"Grossly Misleading"…"Outright Fabrications." Numerous independent media outlets have rejected the Bush charge that John Kerry's health plan would lead to government-run health care. The Washington Post called the attack "fiction" and "specious," and Howard Kurtz wrote that "[f]act sheets provided by the Bush campaign offered little evidence for these and other accusations beyond excerpts from such conservative forums as the Wall Street Journal editorial page and the Weekly Standard." Knight Ridder termed it "grossly misleading." "Outright fabrications," said the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Detroit Free Press called Bush's attack "absurd accusations … flat-out false." And ABC News said the charge was "not true … far from it." [Washington Post editorial, 9/16/04; Washington Post, 10/9/04 and 10/13/04; Knight Ridder, 10/9/04; St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial, 9/27/04; Detroit Free Press editorial, 9/26/04; ABC News World News Tonight, 9/13/04]

Health Care Experts Called on Bush Campaign to End Misleading Attacks. 68 health care policy experts have released a petition calling on the Bush campaign to end its misleading attacks on Kerry's health plan: "Although Senator Kerry's proposals should be subject to a full analysis of their cost and impact, any claim that they amount to 'government-run health care' or a 'government takeover' of the health care system or of health care decision-making is simply inconsistent with the facts. We are not aware of any expert in health care or health care finance, whatever his or her political orientation, who believes otherwise." And "when read a [Bush] ad script over the telephone, Lewin Group vice president John Sheils said: ‘I don't see any truth in it anywhere. I don't think the statement is quite true.'" The Bush campaign relies on Lewin Group analyses for a number of its claims. [Jonathan Cohn, The New Republic, 10/13/04; Los Angeles Times, 10/13/04; www.georgewbush.com]

Study Bush Campaign Cites Shows 97% of Americans Keep Existing Health Plans. "Lewin's vice president John Sheils told FactCheck.org that his computer model projects that only 8.2 million (of the 243 million who currently have private or government health insurance) would change their insurance plans under Kerry's plan." [FactCheck.org, 10/4/04]

Kerry's Plan Relies on "Tax Breaks to Employers and Tax Credits to Individuals." "Instead of offering a big government health care plan, the Kerry plan "studiously avoids any similarity to the one proposed in 1993 by the Clintons," Knight Ridder reported. "It relies on existing agencies and on tax breaks to employers and tax credits to individuals to ensure access to the same health care program available to members of Congress and federal employees." The New York Times wrote that "the strength of the Kerry approach is that it relies primarily on well-tested health-insurance arrangements." [Knight Ridder, 9/14/04; New York Times editorial, 10/2/04]

THE FACTS - KERRY VS. BUSH-CHENEY ON INTELLIGENCE

Kerry Strongly Supports Increased Intelligence Funding - Including $250 Billion in the Previous 8 Years - A 50% Increase Since 1996 - John Kerry has strongly supported recent increases in Intelligence funding, and, in the wake of 9/11, has supported the bipartisan call for an even larger increase in intelligence funding. According to a report issued by the Center for Defense Information entitled "Intelligence Funding and the War on Terror" John Kerry has supported approximately $250 billion in Intelligence funding over the past eight years alone. The report concludes that Kerry has supported a 50% increase in intelligence funding since 1996. [Senate Intelligence Authorization Funding voice votes 9/25/02, 12/13/01, 12/6/00, 11/19/1999, 10/8/98 & 9/25/96; 1997, Senate Roll Call vote # 109; Jewish News Bulletin of Northern California, 4/5/02]

Washington Post: Republican Criticism on Kerry Intel Record is Wrong. "President Bush, in his first major assault on Sen. John F. Kerry's legislative record, said this week that his Democratic opponent proposed a $1.5 billion cut in the intelligence budget, a proposal that would ‘gut the intelligence services,' and one that had no co-sponsors because it was ‘deeply irresponsible'….In fact, the Republican-led Congress that year approved legislation that resulted in $3.8 billion being cut over five years from the budget of the National Reconnaissance Office -- the same program Kerry said he was targeting." [Washington Post, 3/12/04]

Porter Goss, Hand-Picked By Bush to Head CIA, Wanted to Cut Intel More Than Kerry, And Specifically Targeted "Human Intelligence." "The Bush reelection campaign has been blasting Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry as deeply irresponsible for proposing intelligence cuts at the same time. A Bush campaign ad released on Aug. 13 carried a headline: ‘John Kerry...proposed slashing Intelligence Budget 6 Billion Dollars.' But the cuts Goss supported are larger than those proposed by Kerry and specifically targeted the ‘human intelligence' that has recently been found lacking. The recent report by the commission probing the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks called for more spending on human intelligence." [Washington Post, 8/24/04]

Goss Cuts Would Have Cut Intelligence Personnel By 20% or More. "But three months earlier, on June 22, Goss was one of six original co-sponsors of legislation titled H.R. 1923, called the Restructuring a Limited Government Act. Among other things, the legislation, written by then-Rules Committee Chairman Gerald B.H. Solomon (R-N.Y.), directed that "the president shall, for each of fiscal years 1996 through 2000, reduce the total number of military and civilian personnel employed by, or assigned or detailed to, elements of the Intelligence Community by not less than 4 percent of the baseline number" of employees on Sept. 30, 1995. There are believed to be about 20,000 employees of the CIA, and an unknown number of others in the military intelligence agencies. [Washington Post, 8/24/04]

Goss Himself Has Been Critical Of CIA For Lack Of "Human Intelligence" Despite Earlier Attempts To Cut The Size Of The Intelligence Community. Indeed, [Goss has] been critical of the agency's failures, especially the lack of substantial "human intelligence" - agents in the field. Earlier this year, his panel slammed the CIA for "ignoring its core missional activities" and for its "dysfunctional denial of any need for corrective action." [The New York Post, August 11, 2004]

9-11 Commission Report Recommended Greater Emphasis On Human Intelligence. The commission report recommends a greater emphasis on and funding for human intelligence, meaning information gathered by the CIA from spies inside adversary governments or terrorist groups. Human intelligence now consumes a small percentage of an estimated $40 billion annual intelligence budget, which is weighted heavily toward technical intelligence devices such as spy satellites. [USA TODAY, August 2, 2004]

THE FACTS - KERRY VS. BUSH-CHENEY ON DEFENSE SPENDING

Kerry Has Supported $4.4 Trillion in Defense Spending Including the Largest Increase Since the 1980's, and 16 of 19 Defense Authorization Bills. John Kerry is a strong supporter of the U.S. Armed Services and has consistently worked to ensure the military has the best equipment and training possible. In 2002, John Kerry voted for a large increase in the defense budget. This increase provided more than $355 billion for the Defense Department for 2003, an increase of $21 billion over 2002. This measure includes $71.5 billion for procurement programs such as $4 billion for the Air Force's F-22 fighter jets, $3.5 billion for the Joint Strike Fighter and $279.3 million for an E-8C Joint Stars (JSTARS) aircraft. Kerry's vote also funded a 4.1% pay increase for military personnel, $160 million for the B-1 Bomber Defense System Upgrade, $1.5 billion for a new attack submarine, more than $630 million for Army and Navy variants of the Blackhawk helicopter, $3.2 billion for additional C-17 transports, $900 million for R&D of the Comanche helicopter and more than $800 million for Trident Submarine conversion. [2002, Roll Call Vote # 239; Websites of Senators Daschle, Dodd accessed 7/25/03; Def. Auth 1985-2004; Defense Authorization Conference Reports, FY86-present; Congressional Quarterly Almanacs, 1986-2002; House Armed Service Committee Authorization Conference Report Summaries FY98- present; Vote #167, 7/30/1985, S.1160 Passed 94-5, Kerry-Y; Vote #167, 7/30/1985, S.1160 Passed 94-5, Kerry-Y; Vote #207, 8/9/86, bill passed 86-3, Kerry-Y, conference report passed by voice vote, 10/15/86; Vote #384, 11/19/87, HR 1748, passed 86-9, Kerry-Y; Vote #252, 7/14/1988, HR 4264 Passed 64-30 Kerry-Y; Vote #299, 11/15/1989, HR 2461 Passed 91-8, Kerry-Y; Vote #265, 11/22/1991, HR 2100 Passed 79-15, Kerry-Y; S 3114 passed by voice vote, 9/19/92, HR 5006 passed by unanimous consent, 10/5/92; Vote #380, 11/17/1993, HR 2401 Passed 77-22, Kerry-Y; Vote #297, 9/13/1994, S.2182 Passed 80-18, Kerry-Y; Vote #296, 11/6/97, Fiscal 1998 Defense Authorization (S. 936/H.R. 1119), conference report adopted 90-10, Kerry: Yes; Vote #293, 10/1/98, HR 3616, Passed 96-2, Kerry-Y; Vote #284, 9/22/99, S1059, Passed 93-5, Kerry-Y; Vote #275, 10/12/00, HR 4205, Passed 90-3, Kerry-Y; Vote #369, 12/13/01, S 1438, Passed 96-2, Kerry-Y; Vote #165, 6/27/02, S 2514, bill Passed 97-2, Kerry-Y; Senate agreed to conference report on HR 4546 by voice vote, 11/13/02; Vote 194, 5/22/03, S 1050 passed 98-1, Kerry ANNOUNCED For; Defense Authorization Conference Reports, FY86-present; Congressional Quarterly Almanacs, 1986-2002; House Armed Service Committee Authorization Conference Report Summaries FY98- present]

B-2 BOMBER: The Kerry Record

Kerry has supported over $16.7 billion in defense authorizations for the B-2 program, over $11 billion since the Cheney cuts.

· THE CHENEY RECORD: Cheney Proposed Cuts to B-2 Program. According to the Boston Globe, in 1990, "Defense Secretary Richard Cheney announced a cutback… of nearly 45 percent in the administration's B-2 Stealth bomber program, from 132 airplanes to 75…" [Boston Globe, 4/27/90]

PATRIOT MISSILE SYSTEM: The Kerry Record

Kerry supported at least $10 billion in defense authorizations for the Patriot program, including over $5 billion since Cheney declined to fund the program

THE CHENEY RECORD: Bush I-Cheney Budget Said Us Didn't Need More Patriots: "Ironically, the 1992 budget requests no new funds to buy additional Patriot missiles. In its projections last year, before the outbreak of the gulf war, the Army had planned to ask for an additional 440 of them in 1992." [Washington Post, 2/5/91] The president requested $603 million for the development of tactical antimissile weapons, but he sought no funds for new purchases of the Patriot system. The Patriot missile, manufactured by Raytheon Corp., was performing well in the Persian Gulf war [Facts on File, 2/7/91]

BRADLEY FIGHTING VEHICLES: The Kerry Record

Kerry has supported at least $8.5 billion in defense authorizations for the Bradley program, including almost $4 billion since Cheney tried to kill the program.

THE CHENEY RECORD: Bush-Cheney Budget Terminated The Bradley. "Major weapons killed include the Army's M-2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle, the Navy's Trident submarine and F-14 aircraft, and the Air Force's F-16 airplane. Cheney decided the military already has enough of these weapons." [Boston Globe, 2/5/91]

FALSE NEGATIVE ATTACKS FROM DESPERATE BUSH CAMPAIGN

Voice Over: "Alone in the booth....why take the risk?"

THE FACTS - BUSH IS A RISK TO THE MIDDLE CLASS

5.2 Million More Americans Have No Health Insurance on Bush's Watch. The number of uninsured has swelled under Bush by 5.2 million to a total of 45 million, one in seven people living in the United States. Since 2000, the percentage of Americans with health coverage through their job has dropped 3.2 percent to just 60.4 percent. [Census Bureau, Current Population Reports]

Families' Health Expenses Up 64 Percent On Bush's Watch. Despite promising in 2000 to make sure "people have got affordable health care," families' health bills are up 64 percent since Bush took office. Family health premiums are up by $3,512 and are rising at nearly five times the rate of wages. [Bush interview with ABC's This Week, 1/23/00; Kaiser Family Foundation, Employee Health Benefits Survey 2004]

America Has Lost 1.6 Million Private Sector Jobs Under Bush, Incomes and Wages Decline. Since George W. Bush took office, America has seen 1.6 million jobs lost. America has also lost 2.7 million manufacturing jobs. On average, jobs in growing industries pay $8,848 less than jobs in shrinking industries - that is 27 percent less. Under President Bush the typical family has seen its inflation-adjusted income decline by $1,535, based on the most recent data showing the change from 2000 to 2003. Under President Clinton the typical family saw its inflation-adjusted income rise by $5,489. [Analysis of BLS data from January 2001 through August 2004; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau]

Americans Are Facing Increasing Costs for Child Care, and Energy, and Education. In 2004, a family with 2 children under age 5 in full-time daycare was spending $2,050 more for childcare than in 2000. Households with teenagers are paying $759 more per year for gasoline since George Bush took office. They now pay on average $2,880 per year. Since Bush has taken office, tuition in the United States has increased by $1,207 at four-year public universities - a 35 percent increase. [Department of Energy, Household Vehicles Energy Consumption 1994, Table 5.2, August 1997; Census Bureau, Consumer Price Index, Analysis by Amelia Warren Tyagi; College Board]