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Re: DrHarleyboy post# 110062

Friday, 11/20/2009 6:05:49 AM

Friday, November 20, 2009 6:05:49 AM

Post# of 241056
Accidental Financial Data Point from wnbd's CEO...

" 4,000 stores purchasing a case of product (12 bottles)
once may generate approximately $200,000. "

If True , it means that wnbd's wholesale price , to its
best + biggest Distributors , [or large retail chains , that
do their own distribution , like hd + wm] , is :

$200,000 / (4000 x 12) = $4.17 per bottle

[Almost All of this goes Immediately , or sooner , to the
outside bottler + label maker + raw materials suppliers ,
and case + pallet packers , and THEIR Overhead + Profits ;
wnbd would be lucky to get 10% [= 42 cents] , in Real Gross
'revenues' , BEFORE Also paying for ALL wnbd INSIDE Costs ,
like salaries + payroll taxes + fringes + rents + utilities ,
and travel + advertising + free samples + etc's + +++'s.]

Then, the Distributors need a 20+% Markup to make any
profit , after covering THEIR costs , including overhead ,
+ salesmen's commissions + travel , + advertising/catalogs ,
+ receiving + warehousing , + handling + re-shipping to
Their retail customers , + etc. + etc. [For large chains ,
that do their own internal distribution , their Extra Cost
of Re-distribution to their individual stores is ~ the same;
Even though they don't pay it to an outside distributor.]

So , the minimum cost to any retail store shelf stocker is
~$5 , paid up-front , while most of the stock probably sits
around in back , for years , and probably never re-ordered .

And , that $5 cost is borrowed cash , until each bottle is
finally sold. Not a big cost, for fast-turnovers , and
quick consumables , like cigarettes + gasoline; But, a huge
financing cost for slow-movers + non-repeaters , like
mattresses + stain-removers ; that 99+% of All customers
Don't 'consume' + repurchase , for Years , or Decades ,
or longer , if ever.

That's why [IOO] wnbd tries to hide All Financial Info ;
Because it would show that old retail stores are very slow
to place a 're-stocking' order. Probably 80-90+% of All
wnbd 'revenues' are for initial shipments to new stores.
And, as new stores are added , retail sales decrease in any
old nearby store , due to over-saturation .

So ; wnbd probably [IOO] Does NOT Even Grow by Adding New
Retail Outlets , because wnbd mostly sells to Only New
Retailers ; And each new store Just Decreases sales at All
of the Older closest stores. It's kinda like a ponzi game ;
and probably why there are no new NA's in the USA ; and why
the old Canadian NA's won't re-play the ponzi game in the USA.

Now; back to the $5 Wholesale Cost to Each Retail Shelf :
It's probably $6 , after shipping + handling from the one
+ only [+ still in BK] Outside Bottler ; + the cost-of-cash ,
as the average bottle probably sits for years , after the
retailer ties up his cash. Meanwhile, most retailers can
barely get $10 per bottle , with many having to dump their
slow-moving stain-stuff for Under $8 ; and when 'consumers'
buy their first over-sized bottle , 99+% of them won't even
consume it for many years , or ever , unless it leaks.

However , most retailers Can't Make A Profit UNLESS they sell
at Retail , for AT LEAST 3x of their Wholesale COST , Plus
Shipping + Handling + Cost-Of-Money ; And , if the average
bottle does not move within 1 Month , it's a total waste of
shelf space + back-room storage space + long-term financing
of slow-moving inventory. So, since some/many retailers are
selling bottles for $8 , then , the wholesale cost must soon
drop to : ~$8.00 / 3 = ~$2.67 [Including cost-of-money , And
shipping + handling from wnbd , and storage on retail
shelves + in back rooms.]

Now let's swim back upstream , to the costs at the bottler ,
and the other 'outside' contractors , and advertising ,
and the wnbd insider salaries , and other overhead ,
and 'The wnbd Group' top-level rake-off , and the probably
80-90% "Preferred" Share Structure , plus their probably
accruing Dividends , plus probably a load of always-hidden
+ high-interest-bearing cash loans and/or Toxic CD's , etc's.

By the way ; the Share Structure is Not Totally Hidden ,
from those who do Real DD , and don't just cheer about every
new retail store that sends $50 to wnbd , for their first ,
and probably yearly [ or final ] order of 12 tubs @ $4 each ,
plus shipping + handling + cost-of-negative-cash-flow .

A few DD Facts[?] ; as Always + Still Admitted by the CEO :

1] There are at least 5 Billion Authorized Common Shares ,

2] Starting 3+ years ago ,

3] When the common float was 'only' ~200 Million ,

4] Which has grown by over 6x , to now Over 1.2 Billion ,

5] In just ~3 years , which is Over 80% Yearly Dilution ,

6] Compounded annually , And still continuing ,

7] At least until 'revenues' are ~$27,500,000 ,

8] Which is ~32x the currently still "less than $1,000,000"

9] After 3+ years of trying , including 'saturating Canada' .

Thus ; Even if wnbd Doubles its sales , Every Year , for 5
More Years , they still will have kept losing more money ,
for another 5 More Years [because 32x = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2].

10] AND , there are at least 10 Million "Preferred Shares" ,

11] Which Guarantee 'voting control' over All Commons ,

12] And , they work , because No commoner has ever 'voted' ,

13] Or even heard about Any 'votes' , for more than 3 years ,

14] While there Must Have Been At Least 1 vote per year ,

15] As Required , by All Public Companies , even if foreign
and/or pink , especially if they keep selling new shares ,
in the USA , through US Brokers , to US residents .

Thus ; the 10 Million "Preferreds" probably have ~5 Billion
'votes' [to always out-vote the currently Authorized commons].
Typically, a 'voting' Preferred Share is 'convertible' , and
at No Additional Cost to its Insider Owner , to at least as
many common shares ; And , Must Be Counted In The FULLY
DILUTED CURRENT FLOAT , to determine if the common shares
are currently over-priced , based on their True Percentage
of ownership , and the current value of the company , based
on its sales + after-tax profits , or near-term projections
to be profitable.

In Other Words ; The Fully Diluted Float is probably at least
1.2 Billion Commons [+ growing 80% compounded yearly , since
birth , 3+ years ago] , PLUS , At Least 5 Billion 'Common
Equivalents' Owned By Insider "Preferreds" ; for a Total
Fully Diluted Float Of At Least 6.2 Billion , Today ; And
~always still growing , with No Chance Of Profitability ,
for At Least 5 Years , Unless wnbd 'revenues' Double Every
Year , Compounded Annually ; And , wnbd keeps selling more
new shares fast enough , to cover 5 more years of growing
losses , and exponential adding of new retailers , to cover
for the older ones that don't re-order ; And , cutting the
wholesale 'delivered' cost to ~$2.50 , which is probably
more than the bottler's cost [which explains why it's BK].

This means , at ~$0.01 per common share , the current Fully
Diluted Market Cap is : $0.01 x 6.2 Billion = ~$62 Million !
Which is ONLY : 1.2/6.2 = 19%-'owned' by commoners , who
will never 'vote' , so their 'share' of 'ownership' can
Always + Easily + ~legally be further diluted to ~0% .

Finally ; let's estimate the current 'value' of All of wnbd,
and the corresponding Fully Diluted Value of a Common share.

Even assuming No Further Share Structure Dilution [common
or Insider Preferreds , or CD's/Warrants/Loans] , And No
top-level rake-off of cash or profits by 'The wnbd Group' ,
And an End to Cash-Burning within 1 year , And No wholesale
price-cutting , And whatever else is impossibly good :

If wnbd had 'revenues' of $1 Million , and 1% After-Tax
Profit , that was 'retained' internally , and/or paid out
as Fully Diluted common + Preferred shareholder dividends ;
then , ~today , 1 common share might be 'worth' :

$1,000,000 / 6,200,000,000 = $0.00016

And/But ; Only if outsider common shareholders were always in
Control of 50+% of All 'votes' ; And , therefore , actually
and legally and irreversibly "Owned" 50+% of the company ;
And , it was "Fully Reporting" to the US SEC , and NOT Pink ,
especially NOT a foreign pink ; with No US Assets , and No
US Officers or Directors , also with No US Personal Assets .

extra , Sincerely .

P.S. ; Since wnbd began publicly selling commons , it appears
to have always been 100% controlled by one CEO , who has
published a very small + selective part of his possibly
relevant previous experience , on the wnbd website. Other
background + bio info is easily available on Google , and
even via very-low-cost [$20-$50] Internet P.I.'s.

For a few $'s more , near-Barrie Local P.I.'s can be hired
to provide a raft of not-really-totally-secret data about
the wnbd company + insiders + outside connections + deals ,
and financials + share structure + other stuff. Anylong who
has more than 1 million commons [currently 'worth' ~$9k] ,
should invest just 1% more [~$90] in a P.I. , kinda like
buying a foreign pinky insurance policy. It's well worth it ,
considering that the common trading price of wnbd wobbles
~10% daily , and often 50+% monthly , and bouncily trending
DOWN 80% in just the last 2 years. With just more of the same
expected for the next 5 years , assuming that the longs keep
averaging-down , fast enough. Could be possible. They've
already 'contributed' over $10 Million in common stock
losses since wnbd pinks started swapping , ~3 years ago ,
based on cumulative trading $volume and net price shrinkage.
All cheerfully paid by long holders + averaging-downers ,
and the net losses of outsider-minus-insider long flippers.
IOO , 70% went to wnbd insiders + covering company losses ,
and the other ~$3 Million went to MM's + Brokers + Shorters.
The New-Admin US SEC + FBI + DOJ + 'others' have re-started
chasing scams against US residents , and their US helpers ,
and anyone that has easily seizable US assets. 'Bout time.

Hint : For the most bang-for-the-buck , have the P.I. focus
on the past performance of the previous pinks + privates ,
during the times that were being assisted by the current
wnbd CEO. Then, take a vacation in the Caribbean, and learn
how to short +/or 'hedge' foreign pinkys , for fun + profit.

Averaging-Down is profitable for shorters , only [and All pinky/penny CEO's + Brokers + M&M's].