ajtj99's Market Pulse

[Justa Werkenstiff]

Market: Last Monday I said: "I would expect to see a close below SPX 1100 this week." And on Friday this took place. I have said not to exepct a tradeable rally until SPX 1080 or so and this looks to take place early this week.

I am within a day or two of becoming short term bulish on the SPX. I have a number of things coming together from various disciplines that suggest an election rally that puts a close at SPX 1121 or above by next week. But after that, things suggest a resumption of the downtrend.

The Dow looks primed for a bounce too. Problem is that there are three weekly crows on the Dow and that suggests that it will be a bounce only. THE SPX and OEX have crowish weekly patterns but there are other reasons as well to suggest that these rallies will be short lived.

NDX and COMPQ are problematic here as they are not oversold. Same with RUT. You could take a bullish view or a bearish view of this divergence. I am on the bearish side of this case longer term but will use the SPX as a proxy to make decisions with respect to these averages for now.