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Wednesday, November 18, 2009 9:29:41 AM
good post. If we examine what happened the day the merger was announced on 11/2, we see s quick short squeeze then a takedown reversal. I had been thinking about the short position strategy behind that for a while and I think you bring up a good possibility. Normally, something like a merger could be seen as a positive for a stock under the right conditions. But also in most cases there is some form of dilution to shareholders and its likely they used it against the stock because of that dilution uncertainty. That's about the only way to describe the stock action. I think the stock then held a lower support waiting to hear if that dilution was in fact happening. And rightfully so since it is known COH is a premium for this company. And there was always that new huge debt issue of RWE's in the mix..that is completely dilutive, and I have to believe that is a big part of why the merger isn't happening as planned, so a good decision on Dennis Fisher's part on the DD. Inheriting $29MM in someone else's debt would be a deal breaker for any sane person. So...as it appears the merger now turns into a strategic partnership instead (which adds to the bottom line not subtracts), it becomes much less innocuous to the stock, therefore relieving that side of the pressure equation.
I'm pretty sure that is what is behind this newfound strength. So, yes a win, win for all shareholders.
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