Rambus (RMBS)

[Threejack]

re: I'll be dead and buried before this litigation is finally resolved.

Hey Skeptic,

Hahaha. Maybe, but imagine for a moment you were able to shed your skepticism and instead were inclined to expect the unexpected in this saga. Just for a moment...

You already booked the profit in your Nov 17.50 calls. Very nimble move today. You were lucky.

The 07 LEAPS provide plenty of time value and plenty of time for Rambus to either overcome its current legal issues or prosper despite any current legal setbacks, or some combination of both. Given the operational performance and trend of Rambus and its non-patents-in-suit product lines, think you were smart not to sell out today, which leads me to your new short position, in at 16.80, right?

How low are you expecting the share price to go in the next six months? Rambus guided up on the Earnings Call last week. Last quarter record royalties; new serial link revenue stream; first sale with Cadence, second DDR2 interface licensee, etc. All signs of a very healthy and growing business, not a short candidate.

Personally, think the price action today suggests the known potential bad legal surprises are baked into the current price, plus or minus a few bucks. Hardly worth the risk of a sudden settlement announcement, seems to me, unless you are dealing in big volume with a short term horizon and you are very nimble. Because if you are suddenly wrong, well...

Ok. Put your skeptical shades on again. Surely you know you can expect to be nimble only so many times before you get caught in your tracks. So, I'm not too enthused about shorting Rambus at this price, but that's just me.

As to ARM and Synopsis entering the PCIe market, that's cool. Plenty of business for everyone. Check out the daily agendas at the Denali Memory Conference posted at TMF by our friend Cor. You will see Rambus and several of its customers well represented on the Day 2 Track B Serial Interface Agenda. As an aside, the Day 1 High Performance Memory Agenda is heavy with DDR2 from Rambus and Samsung and some XDR from Toshiba and Samsung. Curiously, Micron is pushing RLDRAM(any Rambus IP in here?? : ) in this space instead of DDR2. Wonder why?

http://www.denali.com/memcon/sanjose2004_day1.html
http://www.denali.com/memcon/sanjose2004_day2trackb.html

All just my opinion.

Threejack