Estimated Prophet Portfolio

[gym gravity]

wow, nice red high volume day followup to that "tombstone" or "shooting star".

the dollar being high in premarket has the futures jacked.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Stock futures are currently off of their highs, but sport a modest lead over fair value, thanks partly to a 0.4% pullback in the Dollar Index. Earnings announcements have been somewhat complementary to this morning's moderately positive tone, too. Disney (DIS) topped the consensus earnings estimate by bringing in an adjusted $0.46 per share for its latest quarter. Nordstrom (JWN) came a bit shy of expectations by bringing in $0.38 per share, but attempted to redeem itself by issuing upside guidance that calls for earnings from $1.83 to $1.88 per share for fiscal 2010. Meanwhile, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) posted better-than-expected adjusted earnings of $0.30 per share for its latest quarter. In terms of data, the September Trade Balance is due at the bottom of the hour (8:30 AM ET) and the preliminary consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan is due after the open (10:00 AM ET). Separately, Chicago Fed President Evans will be making a speech from Paris (10:30 AM ET).

i think trade ballance data (8:30) is going to be good because cheap dollar favors exports.

consumer sentiment is out today (10am) and I was predicting there would be a bottom in consumer sentiment sometime between back to school and before holiday shopping. this is the one I think it will be lowest.

who knows what the chicago fed president will say, all he has to say is the economy is good and the market will interpret it as posturing to raise rates, sending the dollar up and the markets down.

if I had the stones I would buy an inverse etf at the open or in premarket. (if the futures stay jacked up due to export data)

I think today will be a gap/spike up and fade by 10-10:30.

If the neckline is tested soon it sets up a nice fakeout H&S and bounce to new highs for Santa/January, or a bigger fall, but I think as long as there are these repeated 5% corrections this market could climb like the last 3/4 of 2003



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