augieboo's depository of gold

[augieboo]

SIR REALIST on GOLD "Heavy Metal by the numbers: a nearterm case for gold" (Related charts at bottom of this post)
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17801854

What follows is not the comprehensive metals list. Rather, it's those that were the most popular, principally because of their massive percentage gains in 52 weeks. Most descriptions and numbers came from NASDAQ's site.

Market caps and PE shown are at close of 7/26/02. GFI and SSRI may not have PEs; I have conflicting data.

In most cases, current shorts can cover within 1 day's normal volume... unless otherwise noted. South African companies apparently don't release earnings reports via usual channels, so I'm not sure where to find that info.

(Asterisk denotes those that grew 300% or better in 52 wks. Double asterisk denotes those that exceeded 400%. DROOY & HL nearly reached 600%!)

Symbol - 52 wk range - PE - shorts as of 7/15 - mkt cap - shares outstanding - earnings report date

*HGMCY (4.51-19.00) 3M $1.68B 168M (No reports)
Harmony Gold Mining Company specializes in turning old digs into new digs. Harmony is South Africa's third-largest gold miner after AngloGold and Gold Fields Limited. The company buys mature gold mines with lagging production and turns them into low-cost, high-productivity mines. Harmony's mining operations in South Africa and Canada produce about 2.5 million ounces of gold annually. The company also owns about 17% of Goldfields Limited of Australia (which is merging with Delta Gold) and 31% of Australia's Bendigo Mining. Continuing to dig its way to the future, Harmony acquired four more African mines from AngloGold for $224 million in 2001.

RGLD (4.46-15.95) (PE 47.86) 333K (limited insider sells) $180M 18M Approx 8/9
Royal Gold will only deal with royalty. Rather than operating gold mines, the firm buys the right to collect royalties from mine operators in exchange for cash investments. This strategy allows Royal Gold to minimize its exposure to gold prices and the costs of mining gold ore. With gold stocks out of favor and financing difficult for miners to obtain, Royal Gold's strategy has allowed it to acquire royalty stakes in properties owned by major gold producers such as Placer Dome, Rio Tinto, and AngloGold. The company holds royalty interests in mining operations in Nevada and Argentina, and in development-stage projects in Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania. Management and directors own about 30% of Royal Gold.

*GFI (3.82-17.15) (PE 26.47; not certain) 2.5M $4.22B 469M Approx 8/2
One of the world's largest gold exploration and development companies, Gold Fields was formed from the merged gold interests of Gold Fields of South Africa and Gencor Limited. The company is South Africa's #2 gold producer (after AngloGold, the world's largest gold miner). Gold Fields produces about 3.7 million ounces of gold a year at its mines in South Africa (Beatrix, Driefontein, Kloof, Leeudoorn, Libanon, St Helena) and Ghana (Tarkwa). The company's mineral reserves contain more than 80 million ounces of gold. Bent on global expansion, in 2001Gold Fields joined an Australian gold rush-via-acquisition by buying the Agnew and St. Ives mines from WMC. Anglo American is Gold Fields' largest shareholder (20%).

RANGY (2.29-8.00) 21K $50M 14M (No reports)
A descendant of Rand Mines Limited, South Africa's oldest mining house, holding company Randgold & Exploration produces gold through subsidiaries and various cross-holdings. Its 59%-owned Randgold Resources subsidiary, which is being spun off, owns mining interests in western Africa, including 40% of one of Africa's premiere gold mines, the Morila mine (a joint venture with AngloGold) in Mali, and projects in Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal. Randgold Resources' properties hold around 2.85 million ounces of gold in reserves. Chairman Roger Kebble and his family control Randgold & Exploration (along with other entities involved in the gold industry, such as JCI Gold Ltd. and Consolidated African Mines Ltd.).

GG (4.69-12.35) (PE 21.73) 5.2M(2.91 days at ave. volume) $1.3B 182M Reported 7/24
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/news/articles.asp?guid={BA3...
Precious few companies have a name as self-explanatory as Goldcorp. The gold mining company operates the Red Lake Mine in Ontario and the Wharf Mine in South Dakota. Goldcorp's mines produce more than 600,000 ounces of gold annually and have reserves of over 4.3 million ounces. Gold, sold as bullion, accounts for 80% of sales. The company got a new lease on life after state authorities in South Dakota approved expanded operations at its Wharf Mine. Goldcorp also processes sodium sulfate in Saskatchewan, Canada. Sodium sulfate is an industrial mineral used in the production of detergents, paper, glass, textiles, and carpet deodorizer. Chairman and CEO Robert McEwen owns 7% of Goldcorp.

**DROOY (0.75-5.88) 630K $409M 177M (No reports)
Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) is rooting deep for profits. The gold mining and refining company has been mining west of Johannesburg since 1895. DRD produced more than 1 million ounces of gold in 2000, and it has more than 14 million ounces in proven and probable reserves. Formerly part of Randgold & Exploration Co., DRD was reborn as an independent entity in 1997 when Randgold unbundled it and allowed it to acquire its sister companies, Blyvooruitzicht Gold Mining and Buffelsfontein Gold Mines. DRD is pursuing ultra-deep mining at depths of almost two and a half miles. It has mines in South Africa and Papua New Guinea and has purchased stakes in three Australian mining companies.

*KGC (0.62-2.90) 7.4M(3.75 days at ave volume) $480M 358M Approx 7/30
Kinross Gold digs gold mining so much, especially since prices have improved, that it's buying fellow Canadian gold miners Echo Bay Mines and TVX Gold. The deal will make Kinross one of North America's top gold miners, upping its production to around 2 million ounces annually. Kinross (with subsidiary Kinam Gold) already produces nearly 945,000 ounces of gold per year at mines around the globe. About 85% of the company's production comes from just three mines -- Fort Knox in Alaska, Hoyle Pond in Canada, and 55%-owned Kubaka in far eastern Russia. The pending deal includes Kinross' acquisition of the 49.9% that Newmont Mining owns in the TVX Newmont Americas joint venture.

**BGO (0.29-1.92) 428K $213M 234M Approx 8/22
Nothing makes Bema Gold beam more than a promising gold strike. The mining company owns a 79% stake in the Julietta Mine (Russia), which is expected to produce 100,000 ounces of gold annually (production began in September 2001). Bema's 50%-owned Refugio Mine (Chile), which produced 170,000 ounces in 2000, has been mothballed until the price of gold stabilizes. Other interests include the Aldebaran Mine (Chile), which contains the rich Cerro Casale gold-copper deposit; the Yarnell Mine (US); the Monument Bay development (Canada); and a Russian platinum-palladium project. With gold prices in flux, Bema has partnered with other gold miners, including Kinross Gold and Placer Dome, for exploration and development.

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Next are the popular silvers. I listed HL in here because I think its best value projections come from silver though it properly is heavier weighted earnings-wise towards gold. Note that Warren Buffett owns a lot of silver and Gates owns 12% of PAAS... that should tell ya something.

PAAS (3.00-9.85) 960K(1.5 days at ave. volume) 1 seller filed 2 144s in June $204M 41M Approx 8/13
Pan American Silver could line every cloud in the sky. The exploration and mining company controls nearly 163 million ounces of silver (proven and probable reserves), mainly in the Americas. Its projects include the Quiruvilca and Huarón mines, both in Peru, which produce around 6 million ounces of silver annually, as well as copper, lead, and zinc. Pan American owns a 20% interest in Russia's Dukat Mine, one of the world's largest known silver deposits. It has exploration projects in Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico, and Peru, and is buying Corner Bay Silver, which owns a gold-silver project in Mexico. Pan American is hoping that new high-tech and advanced medical uses for silver will bump up the metal's price.

**SSRI (1.47-7.80) (PE 60.59; not certain) 752K(1.14 days at ave volume) $66M 20M Approx 8/31?
Silver Standard Resources' properties hold one of the largest silver reserves (over nearly 500 million ounces, proven and inferred) of any publicly traded company. About 82% of Silver Standard's assets are in silver, the rest in by-product metals such as gold. The company's Bowdens Mine near Sidney, Australia, is expected to produce 4.5 million ounces of silver annually. Silver Standard has acquired a 50% stake in the Manantial Espejo Property in southern Argentina, which is expect to produce 3.3 million ounces of silver and 75,000 ounces of gold annually. Other properties include the Candelaria Mine in Nevada; the Shafter Project in Texas; and the Diablillos silver-gold project in Argentina.

*CDE (0.63-2.50) 7.2M(3.98 days at ave volume) $96M 73M Approx 8/15
Coeur d'Alene Mines explores for and mines silver and gold properties in the US (Nevada, Idaho, and Alaska) and South America (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile). The company's mines produce about 10.9 million ounces of silver and 96,000 ounces of gold annually. Coeur has proven and probable reserves of about 88 million ounces of silver and 2.7 million ounces of gold -- its Kensington project (Alaska) has over 1.75 million ounces of gold reserves, while its Rochester Mine (Nevada) has over 345,000 ounces of gold. To focus on its core operations, Coeur has sold its Australian properties (including Golden Cross). Copper mining giant ASARCO, part of Nuevo Grupo Mexico, owns 19% of Coeur.

**HL (.77-5.90) 5.3M(3.33 days at ave volume) some insider selling Apr/May $182M 75M Approx 8/2
Not all that glitters at Hecla Mining is gold -- some of it is silver. Hecla, which dates to 1891, explores for and mines gold (about 60% of sales), silver, lead, and zinc. The company produces nearly 195,000 ounces of gold and more than seven million ounces of silver annually. It operates mines in the US (Alaska and Idaho), Mexico, and Venezuela. Hecla has sold its industrial minerals segment (clay, kaolin, and feldspar; about 55% of 1999 sales). The company, which has suffered ten years of losses, will focus on expanding its gold and silver reserves through exploration and acquisitions.

---Some final thoughts:

First: KGC, GFI and HL likely report next week. HL and DROOY were the best performers this past year, though KGC and GFI were none too shabby. HL is a turnaround story. KGC is a growth story. HL and KGC are the heaviest shorted, compared to their average volumes/day. From this and the charts, I think DROOY HL GFI and KGC, in that order, may provide the most upside on this rebound.

Second: to review the dollar chart, go here: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[g,a]macl...

Third: Because of gold's need for a rebound and the COMP & DJIA charts, I expect we may see the bottom of the DJIA doji Monday, while gold rallies some.

Finally, 15 charts that explain much more should be reviewed:

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=4556&u=sirreal...