AI
Friday, November 06, 2009 9:19:35 AM
Back of the envelope calculation (very rough numbers from someone that should not even be attempting to try to estimate value left over for the preferreds. Do your own DD.)
The proforma post bk shows a book value of $8 bil. If CIT were to sell for 1.5 times book that would lead to a market cap of $12bil.
Those claims above ours that are not going to be paid in full, but at 70 cents on the dollar is about $36.7 bil. At 70% ($25.7bil) that leaves a balance of $11 bil that they will be due in stock. That leaves $1 bil to cover the preferreds shares claims of about $2.8 bil in Series A,B, and D. That is about 35 cents on the dollar in CVR.
Of course if CIT sells for not much less than 1.5X book we are screwed. More than 1.5X book and we get very happy.
Again, these are very rough numbers. Just wanted to share my thought process.
The proforma post bk shows a book value of $8 bil. If CIT were to sell for 1.5 times book that would lead to a market cap of $12bil.
Those claims above ours that are not going to be paid in full, but at 70 cents on the dollar is about $36.7 bil. At 70% ($25.7bil) that leaves a balance of $11 bil that they will be due in stock. That leaves $1 bil to cover the preferreds shares claims of about $2.8 bil in Series A,B, and D. That is about 35 cents on the dollar in CVR.
Of course if CIT sells for not much less than 1.5X book we are screwed. More than 1.5X book and we get very happy.
Again, these are very rough numbers. Just wanted to share my thought process.
Joe
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