One Step Ahead

[zeninvestor32]

MORE THOUGHTS RE: PR

First, to address my post last night re: Topo and Raggs. I still believe they need some lithium. I appreciate Topo's response to me and it sounded sincere, however I simply cannot tolerate unsubstantiated, blatant, MISLEADING pump brigades. With the way Topo and Raggs were going on and on last night, you'd swear we were not only getting a filing, valuation, share structure and DeBeers buying us out, but you'd have thought Microsoft and GE were in a bidding war for CMKX. I just think they are horribly misleading to new (and current) investors. Haven't we been through this enough that they would learn? The infamous ".05" comment, the Denver races, the Indy races ... the list goes on and on about hot air that went NOWHERE. Ok, I'll grant that Topo obvioiusly knew about a PR being released last night but it was a damn PR that we were all expecting 2 weeks ago!! It IS good news (and I'll discuss that below) but certainly pretty far from the sledgehammer all the pumping would have you believe. Seems to me a post like "Good PR on the way. I think you'll like it" would have been 100x more appropriate than 100 posts basically implying "the Plan" will be revealed. I stick to my opinion and I feel it's an important one given how many new shareholders may be now monitoring the boards. Let's be realistic here. There's a lot of good things happening and let's approach this step by step.

That having been said, I do think this early morning PR was very good for us. I was expecting this 2 weeks ago. I think I see why the delay happened. First off, it appears Roger is staggering events in a logical sequence. Let's take a look.

August 24 UCAD record date
August 31 CIM record date
October 1 GEMM (part 1) record date
October 6 UCAD distribution
October 18 CIM distribution
October 25 UCAD forward split
October 29 GEMM (part 2) record date
Novem. 18 GEMM (part 1) distribution
Novem. 30 GEMM (part 2) distribution

Now look at what is already happening with UCAD's share price. It looks to me like the shorts have already taken the bait and are stuck. They now MUST cover UCAD, CIM and GEMM (part 1) since their record dates have passed. They cannot cover those dividends by buying CMKX any more. And right now, the shorts IMO are experiencing the pain and frustration of what it's going to take to cover UCAD. I don't think they're even near covered and IMO the REAL funny part is I don't think they have any idea whether the UCAD ratio will still stand (meaning if it changes based on a reduced OS number, they may be so far away from covering that it would be shocking). This should be VERY alarming to the shorts IMO. I think the shorts are already trying to work GEMM up and down to shake shares loose in preparation for round 1 with GEMM in November.

So with all this happening, now Roger drops GEMM part 2 on them and basically gives the shorts a choice. Since the record date is October 29, the shorts have 11 days to help themselves clean up a little if they so choose. Because by the time we get to November 30, the shorts have no way of knowing right now if it's going to be any cheaper to be covering GeMM than to be covering CMKX by buying CMKX right now. With part 1 of GEMM hitting November 15 and surely driving up GEMM, part 2 could be very lethal.

And somebody help me here, but at last count (2 years ago in October 2002) GEMM's share structure was 26M outstanding. Does anyone have an updated figure on this? Because right now, the first 95 million dividend shares of GEMM will be horrifying, but if you drop an extra 127 million dividend shares on TOP of that, I just can't possibly see the shorts covering GEMM at a price cheaper than covering CMKX today. I believe this is truly going to force the issue. Still, the shorts will have a choice to make. They can see right now that this is getting serious. UCAD IMO is HURTING them. GEMM part 1 will maim them further. But GEMM part 2 could be utterly devastating. They will have that choice to make by October 29. Roger has laid that out for them imo very loud and clear.

What I see happening is this. Constant dividends to induce pressure on the shorts to cover. This second GEMM dividend MAY be enough to start the covering process (perhaps small at first but enough to get things going). THEN I think the "big" news will be that we have finished our filing and it has been submitted to the SEC for their approval. My understanding is that if this is done properly (and I think it's safe to assume that Roger's presence will ensure this), it could be approved and ready for "fully reporting" status and otcbb trading as early as 6 weeks later. So if this news hits that we've filed with the SEC soon, 6 weeks out puts us just past the November 30 GEMM part 2 distribution. Which would validate that the dividends were being used to force a squeeze while in the mean time, the filing was being prepared and getting the company ready for fully reporting status. This filing part is all guesswork on my part. For all I know, the filing has already been submitted to the SEC. Only Roger, Urban and his accountants likely know the status on this.

Don't let the six week thing discourage you. It sounds to me like this whole process is meant to bring the shorts to justice. We have been giving them options already. They have been choosing incorrectly. Now, I believe each new option gets more painful. Should they STILL miraculously not respond, my guess is that CIM/SGGM can deliver some incredibly lethal blows as well. That is an additional sword dangling over the shorts' heads that they ought to be able to see. It is just getting WAY too painful to keep the short in cmkx going. And on top of it all, the shorts have no idea if MORE dividends are coming from OTHER companies. What about ECPN? What about WMC? Who knows????? How many more shots to the chin do they want their fighter to take before throwing in the towel? Not to mention they still don't even know what the REAL OS, the real float and the real distribution ratios are. Everything still seems to be based on the AS. That can (and IMO WILL likely change). And if that ratio ratchets up, they get torched even further. As I said, Hitchcock turns the screws slowly to build tension. Glenn apparently is a Hitchcock fan.

As a side note, I did want to point out that the consultant at SGGM was a former director at International Minerals Corporation which was formerly known as Ecuadorian Minerals Corporation. Given the news from CMKX about exercising its right in GEMM and the news about the Ecuadorian concessions from UCAD, SGGM seems to be working its way closer into the web. I feel pretty comfortable that IMO, Mr. Rayment is a key figure in the midst of all that is happening. GEMM may prove to be a very valuable asset in the middle of everything else.

Hope I'm clear on all of the above. I know it's a lot.