Saturday, October 24, 2009 10:56:42 AM
On 10:21 pm EDT, Tuesday October 6, 2009
Companies:Athenahealth, Inc.CA, Inc.Computer Programs Systems Inc.
67 WALL STREET, New York - October 6, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has recently published its August '09 Healthcare IT Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 52 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.
{"s" : "athn,ca,cpsi,mdrx","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""} Topics covered: Healthcare Providers - Growth Potential of Health Care IT Services -- Effects of the Stimulus Package - Investor Sentiment - Current Valuation - Earnings - Customer Segmentation - Market Opportunity - Medicaid Rate Growth --Mergers and Acquisitions Targets -- Effect of Obama Health Care Plan -- Exit Strategies
Companies include: Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI); Quality Systems (QSII); Allscripts (MDRX); Eclipsys (ECLP); Cerner (CERN); Quality Systems (QSII); Oracle (ORCL); athenahealth (ATHN); General Electric (GE); Siemens (SI); America Service Group (ASGR); Medidata Solutions (MDSO)
In the following brief excerpt from just one of the 11 interviews in the 52 page report, an equity analysts in the Healthcare IT sector discusses the outlook for the sector and for investors.
LEO CARPIO is a Senior Research Analyst covering the healthcare information technology and services sector. Mr. Carpio joins Caris & Company, Inc., from Prudential Equity Group, LLC, where he spent seven years covering numerous healthcare sectors including healthcare facilities, managed care and pharmacy benefit managers. Prior to serving as Senior Healthcare IT Analyst, Mr. Carpio was an Associate Analyst on the Prudential Healthcare research team. Before joining Prudential, Mr. Carpio worked at MetLife, where his coverage extended to consumer, commercial and mortgage finance companies. Previously, Mr. Carpio was an Associate in Merrill Lynch's finance department. Mr. Carpio began his career with GE Capital in the municipal finance insurance division - Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (FGIC). Mr. Carpio holds a B.A. in management from the University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, and an MBA in corporate strategy and finance from the University of Michigan with honors.
TWST: Do you see larger companies reaping greater benefits?
Mr. Carpio: What's going to happen in the industry three to five years from now is, what we are going to see is massive consolidation in the industry. What will happen is a lot of these smaller niche players, which have niche or specific function software, are going to be absorbed by mid-sized companies. And then in turn, as the mid-sized companies build customer bases and critical mass, the large players who are playing on the higher level - that is, interconnection of records, creating networks - they are going to absorb the mid-sized players. So you are going to have a classic case of a little fish being eaten up by a mid-sized fish, which is going to in turn be eaten by a bigger fish. And that's what's going to happen. So if I were to draw the map for you, it would be like, for example, assume you have a situation of a small niche electronic prescribing software company being bought up by a hospital healthcare IT company who needs that functionality for their software, who then, in turn, gets bought up by a larger company such as a venture. It's something like an IBM or Siemens or GE who decides they want that market share, and they want that software capability in their systems.
TWST: Will that affect small innovative companies introducing new products into the market?
Mr. Carpio: It's a double-edged sword. The ones who've been out there with innovative niches and products, they will find themselves compelled to sell themselves. So a mid-sized company to gain the market share is again a growth. And also it affects innovation in that, because we are going to be imposed to standards over time, the bar, the threshold for standards is going to be incrementally raised as small companies who lack CapEx capability and need a lot of capital funding to keep up with R&D spending, well, just falter wayside. So here we have two items: One, either you sell yourself to a larger player to gain mass and survive, or you die out.
TWST: As you talk to management, what's the level of confidence at the moment?
Mr. Carpio: Everyone is enthusiastic at this point, everyone is optimistic. They all can see that the economy is an issue, yet they see it longer term. They feel that the Obama healthcare IT program, it will be a big boom for the industry. While I think it's the unknown in the near term for management. How it will unfold? When will they start seeing the surge of activity?
TWST: It's based on so many unknowns at this point.
Mr. Carpio: Exactly, that's a challenge. The problem is there are so many unknowns at this point, there are so many things that are moving - the whole thing this summer is the healthcare reform package in general. And that just trickles down into the healthcare IT names in various angles of companies that were previously out of favor. Some are becoming in favor and vice-versa. And this chance seems to be shifting daily. And then when you put that into account, like many of these have companies surged, it rallies as a surge on expectations of solid future growth. Now people are starting to kick this hard and starting to wonder about those assumptions. And as we enter into the second quarter earnings season, that's where I think some of those questions will be raised.
TWST: What's investor interest like in this space?
Mr. Carpio: Very strong. Among the healthcare spaces, it's one of the only ones I believe that has been up this year. And I think investors, in particular institutional investors, feel they need to have some skin in the game, that is, some exposure to this sector.
TWST: What are you telling investors to do?
Mr. Carpio: What I'm telling investors to do is be very prudent in picking companies. I advise them to look at companies with strong management teams, with good vision, a solid franchise with a differentiated product and also a sizeable customer base. That's the type of companies I advise my clients to look at. And then again, check valuation as that is always the key. Some of these companies have surges in valuations, while others are at attractive entry points. And also, in terms of - I advise not only focus on healthcare IT claims themselves, but also look at the second derivative, third derivatives place - that is, see companies who may benefit from the Obama healthcare IT program, but who are not in the headlines right now. They have, in fact, a hidden chance.
TWST: So a large element of investing at the moment is like gazing into a crystal ball?
Mr. Carpio: Exactly, it's not such gazing into the crystal ball, but it's also thinking of the possibility, thinking outside of the box, thinking of the derivative guys that could be impacted. For example, one name that could be benefited is Perot Systems (PER). Perot has a sizeable workforce of IT personnel ready to provide support to - it already provides support to the IT industry, particularly healthcare IT companies. So if there is going to be a surge in demand, many of the mid-sized healthcare IT players will be maxed out in terms of the installation capacity with their existing personnel. They are going to have to rely on partners like Perot to help out. Perot thus becomes a derivative play if you want exposure.
TWST: Are there other derivative companies like Perot that you can think of?
Mr. Carpio: Yes, there are many of them. Perot is one company, another company that's a derivative play is a company called America Service Group (ASGR). What they provide, their main business is providing healthcare services at present. The derivative play is that as part of that business, they created their own customized Electronic Medical Record system that the states are looking at buying and adopting for their own prisons, because what happens is the prison population, when they're released, tend to become Medicaid beneficiaries. And because of that, the states are interested in keeping those records digital to complete the loop. That is, if we have all of these doctors who are going to be wired with Electronic Medical Records on the outside, we might as well wire them on the inside in the prisons. That way when the prisoners go in and out, we have a constant record and can cut costs. So you see, it's like a little warm-up derivative that people have by thinking outside the box that's interesting. And the other thing is also, a lot of the states are receiving one-off grants from the stimulus program - not the IT stimulus program, but from the general stimulus program - a part of the infrastructure segment to buy these offers for their prisons. And this is on a county level that's happening.
The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This 52 page special issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online .
The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Do-IBM-and-Siemens-Have-An-twst-2247226011.html?x=0&.v=1 .........all imho,TRYZ
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