AI
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 4:49:45 PM
Reports of key reversals are greatly exaggerated. The VIX remains in a significant down trend. Several analysts have anticipated a pullback here. This pullback will likely produce a back test of the VIX breakdown below blue line (25ish)--and perhaps even a test of the upper down-sloping trend line (27ish). It would take a move far more violent to produce any kind of sustainable reversal in the VIX.
For a historical perspective on how insignificant today's move is, see the second chart, and pay particular attention to the VIX performance during 2003 and 2004. Until further notice, I will anticipate a similar years-long down-trend in the VIX, and there is a real possibility of seeing it in the mid-teens by Spring 2010.
Would love to see a key reversal because that kind of volatility can pay traders well. I do not expect it whatsoever but will welcome it if we see it. So far, no dice.
GL to all!
Ted
charts courtesy of stockcharts.com
[
For a historical perspective on how insignificant today's move is, see the second chart, and pay particular attention to the VIX performance during 2003 and 2004. Until further notice, I will anticipate a similar years-long down-trend in the VIX, and there is a real possibility of seeing it in the mid-teens by Spring 2010.
Would love to see a key reversal because that kind of volatility can pay traders well. I do not expect it whatsoever but will welcome it if we see it. So far, no dice.
GL to all!
Ted
charts courtesy of stockcharts.com
[
Know the PRESENT market configuration so well it *appears* you know the FUTURE 70+ percent of the time.
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