SYSTEM 4 Comments
I downloaded SPX, DJIA, NDX, and RUT data since each one began. I worked on only the RUT since it is the smallest data set. Any technique that is worth using should work on any largely traded market.
I only looked at the 6 day moving average vs the 6 day moving avg displayed 4 days. The results from backtesting are very scary yet promising: The indicator was 2x more likely to give a false trade signal, but the loss is so much smaller than the fewer, larger gains that the overall compounding still outperformed the overall RUT index.
Some of the assumptions used are: There are no commission costs. There are no income taxes. The 6 day moving average buy/sell signal is independent of other moving averages. It would be a good idea to check the last assuption since e-waves have multiple degrees of trend acting at once and they are all considered when entering a trade.
More study of the false trade signals may yield very important insight to the method's weaknesses, and reduce risk of losses. Study using different offsets, such as 2 or 3 days, could lead to an optimal value. More study using different time frames, such as 7, 8, 9 or 10 day moving averages could easily be done.
