Every Method Has A Cost:
Yes, I agree.
In the present Keynesian environment the markets are, distortions due to government influence have actually decreased the chances technician will get a favorable outcome. As technicians see an increase in losing trades the cautious thing to do is sit on the sidelines. This will dry up liquidity and increase the chances of a market crash.
E-Wavers generally have 2 or 3 favored counts going for them. If the preferred count is not the right one, then a loss is taken; however, the chances for the alternate count goes way up. The total gain is not as much for a small loss followed by a larger win as just having only wins, but risk is still minimized over the long run.
Hurst analysis has a fundamental problem. The bandwidth of the filters do not reject frequencies which are too close together. For instance: as a 12 day period shifts toward a 6 day period, the 6 day moving average which rejects the 6 day period perfectly will begin to reject the shortening 12 day period more significantly. Phasing will be off too!!!
Bollinger bands give many false signals.
RSI is better for identifying a divergence, and should not be used every time the indicator is at an extreme high or low.
All these technical approaches do have weakesses; it's a matter of finding them and staying on the sidelines until conditions favor a more reliable reading.
I certainly would like to know what TREND1's approach is with the red and green lines. Poking holes at "working things" only makes them stronger.
