Everyone needs to stop blasting bueno... he's the most level-headed poster on this board, and from reading his comments... I believe he's actually optimistic about JBI and is thinking long!
JBI never gave guidance on the tapes -- that's true. But JBI has said ZERO about what revenue they can expect from the P2O franchises either -- BOTH of these "estimates" came from laymen number crunchers on this board (including myself).
Sure we have estimates about the large-scale P2O processor's capacity (15 tons in 2 hours), and sure you can calculate from that what kind of oil revenue you can generate, but that's just theory! In the engery space, its what we call "nominal" or "rated" output and it represents the maximum technical limit of what can be produced, not the average output. From that you must deduct non-working hours (-73%), and maintenance, etc.
Also, the single biggest important factor in generating oil from plastic, is the plastic itself -- the feedstock. And there is an existing industry already in-place to collect, clean, separate, shred, melt-down, and make pellets from plastics. Some recyclers burn the stuff and generate energy. Today, all plastic that gets recycled is already accounted for downstream -- and often contractually spoken-for for years to come.
So parking a P2O machine next to a large city does not mean revenue will magically appear. You need to have relationships with the entities that control the plastic recycling, and ensure a flow of feed-stock. Sometimes it's easy (if you fish up-stream enough, you can often get the plastic for free, or paid to take it), and sometimes its not (if you fish downstream where it's already sorted/cleaned/shredded it will cost you).
So forget nominal capacity of these machines ... it's a pipe dream. I believe 10-20% of capacity should be the working assumption here, no more.
That said, and I think even bueno will agree... 50 machines running at 10% capacity with only 50% profit and 50% of that going to franchise fees... still generates PLENTY of cash for JBI, and put the valuation far beyond the $65m of today.
S.
