Thursday, October 15, 2009 3:36:39 AM
My math yields roughly the same as yours. Worth noting is that 50-60 tons / day is roughly the equivalent of ALL of the consumer plastic used by about 1 million people (2008 stats that I read somewhere for the EU).
However, it's hard to imagine the franchises can get their hands on a significant chunk of this (let alone that it all goes into the recycling "chain" and isn't mixed with trash). So in order to achieve that, they would need one/more of the following:
1. relationships with recycling plants, cities, or districts (for raw material)
2. located near a very large city (so need a smaller %age)
3. get their plastic from non-consumer sources (e.g. industry, retail, etc.)
Of course, if JBI is "selecting" their franchises (joint-ventures actually, according to a prior post), then I'm sure they've got the feed-stock volume in the bag.
So I agree with you ... if P2O works as-expected, and ~50 processors are on-line by Q2 next year (and there are no surprises), then I also see a stock price > $10 by summertime.
And that feels like it could be just the beginning!
S.
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