LOL WOW I "guess" I gave some of the people here too much credit thinking they would actually get my point, which was an insanely easy one to understand and grasp. Since this is not the case let me try to paint you guys a more clear picture of what I was actually implying.
Of course I don't just "randomly" pick stocks or make "random guesses" about the stocks I look to buy. Nore was I implying thats what any of you did either.
The point I was trying to make and one that I thought I made quite clear was this:
No matter how much DD you do, no matter how much fact checking you do, no matter how many times you call IR or check the charts, you are STILL making an EDUCATED GUESS.
Why is this? Well guess what, not one person on earth, aside from maybe company insiders and Ms. Cleo, knows with 100% certainty if a stock will take off or fall off. If you for one second actually think that because you did all your DD and research that you know EXACTLY with NO DOUBTS what this or any other stock will do then you clearly know little about trading. This fact gets even more obvious when we are talking about penny and sub penny stocks lol.
Good DD, fact checking and so on make up about 75 to 85% of what goes into picking a stock. What makes up the rest? Chance, guess work, LUCK!
Heres the definition for "Educated guess":
informed guess: a guess that is based on a degree of experience, knowledge, or information
Now I challenge anyone here to tell me this is not exactly what we do as stock traders.
As I stated above, as traders, after we do all of our DD and fact checking, what we are left with is nothing more than a "educated guess" on what we "think" this stock, or any other stock, will actually do! This is a pure and simple, non debateable FACT.
And replys like this make me LOL:
"Not everyone guesses. Maybe that is how you trade stock. I actually know all about this company and choose to stay. "
Oh wow, you actually "know all about" this company? Really? Well do tell! Since you "know all about this company" then please tell us EXACTLY what their 3rd quarter numbers will be. Please tell us exactly what their plans are over the next qurter, and please tell me EXACTLY what their stock price will be in 2 months!
Let me clear some things up for you bud, what you did was do some DD, like most of us here, you know the basics of this company, the facts about this company, the fundlementals. What you DONT know is "all about this company". No one here does. The only people who know that are the CEO and other insiders.
But you are a great example of what I am talking about and proved my point perfectly. You, like me and most people here, did your research, your DD. You then formed an opinion, an "educated guess" on what you THINK this stock will do. So to respond directly to your reply, yes EVERYONE who trades stocks "guesses" to some degree or another. The good traders make very good educated guesses, the n00bs don't do much DD and make more wild guesses, but at the end of the day we are all "guessing" in one way or another.
And on one last note, I was not taking up for CJ. I think that guy is a complete moron and a clear basher. I was also not trying to offend anyone here. I was simply making a very good point that stock trading, no matter how much DD and fact checking you do, still involes some guess work at the end of the day.
