Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[pgerassi]

Dear Keith:

AMD also stated that there will be no more K7 production after Q1-05. Since to stop producing by Q1-05, you must halt wafer starts by end of Q4/04. Thus 50% of K8 wafers is 50% of all wafers for CPU production (some wafers for new designs and engineering). But since more CPUs will come from a 90nm wafer than a 130nm one, more than 67% of production at the end of Q1 will be 90nm. 65nm Fab 36 starts sampling by Q2 for Q4/05-Q1/06 production. 100% 90nm means about 12-15 million K8 per quarter. That's enough for 25%-30% unit marketshare and probably higher revenue share. Fab 36 could add another 24-36 million K8 and K9 production (assuming near constant CPU sizes). That puts AMD to have the capacity to garner 75% to 100% of CPU unit marketshare. That's when Intel has to really worry.

Pete

PS, I figure that when Fab 36 starts to really produce, they will either change Fab 30 to 65/45nm 300mm or to make flash. If the latter, they will start on a new fab by the end of 2005 for 45/32nm 300mm production in a different country.