Oil, inflation, and a falling dollar do matter.
Can we just say that sometimes cycles are predictable, and sometimes they are not. When they are not, we do the same thing everyone else does--wait for clear signals regarding market direction and rationalize our charts while we wait.
At the moment, the signals are mixed every which way. Period. They may clarify fast--and of course, maybe not.
If this weren't an election year, I would say we are in danger of an '87 style crack. Maybe we are anyway.
Black