yankee...
Unable to reply with "PM" since I have not decided to become premium member yet, but I am in agreement with you that the Fed has been and still does see a high risk of serious recession in our future. I firmly believe that they have been giving us the "pro-forma" version of their reports - consistantly overstating the numbers knowing that they can revise them down later with little fanfare and a lot less reaction. The intent of doing this is a return to the idea of "jawboning" the economy up by making folks think things are better than they really are - pumping up consumer sentiment. Again, the objectives are noble, but like in the past I doubt it will work. The annual revision numbers due out the 31st will be interesting, to say the least, and I suspect they will be ugly reading.
Take care.
mlsoft