AI
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 8:57:59 PM
Golfin, I agree the VIX shows a possible bottom--unless it breaks. Your chart of the NYAD is not indicative of much IMHO. I could provide many examples but will offer only one--at least 2 instances in 2003.
The VIX could turn on that lower line shown in the long-term chart (shown below). If it does, that's cool. It is a significant breakwater, and before I saw it, I had been viewing other charts which suggested the VIX could decline hard to 16 to 20 by November 1. Just a possibility.
One of the major problems for the bears since April is over-confidence the market is about to decline. I was able to foresee how that over-confidence could translate into a bullish market deep into September and even October. Now I'm seeing the same possibility all the way into February!
As always, I will take it one day at a time. If 23 breaks on the VIX, look out, in my opinion. If the market finally tops around there, that's absolutely fine with me. The market can save the break below for the 80-week high. ;)
Ted
The VIX could turn on that lower line shown in the long-term chart (shown below). If it does, that's cool. It is a significant breakwater, and before I saw it, I had been viewing other charts which suggested the VIX could decline hard to 16 to 20 by November 1. Just a possibility.
One of the major problems for the bears since April is over-confidence the market is about to decline. I was able to foresee how that over-confidence could translate into a bullish market deep into September and even October. Now I'm seeing the same possibility all the way into February!
As always, I will take it one day at a time. If 23 breaks on the VIX, look out, in my opinion. If the market finally tops around there, that's absolutely fine with me. The market can save the break below for the 80-week high. ;)
Ted
Principle #1: No trades ever based on what we think we know of the future.
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