~50 yrs seems to be a constant. Reserves will at least double if current prices linger beyond next year. Notice that 2004 Canada reserves went up by almost 200B barrels without any additional significant discoveries. Short term, oil will hit whatever it takes to compress consumption - max pain. $50/barrel is not getting very much reaction so maybe gasoline needs to move to $3/gal and beyond to get the message through thick skulls.
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