One Step Ahead

[zeninvestor32]

MY OPINION RE: TRADING

My opinion is this was a pretty strong bluff by the shorts. Drive it down on massive volume just before the dividends to prep retail investors for disappointment. If they can keep it held down while dividends are being distributed (or better yet in their minds, up through the Vegas party), then shareholders frustrations will amplify tenfold in their opinion and they will ultimately get to cover more shares. The shorts imo have adopted an attitude from the start of "make me cover" and a strategy of depressing shareholders through constant downward pressure. There was absolutely NO REASON for today's massive volume spike and push downwards. IMO it was artificially created as the noose may be tightening. A final push so to speak to induce selling. This of course all assumes you believe there is a large naked short position in the first place. I do. And thus, my opinion is based purely on the psychology and strategy that I believe the short position would use to try to extricate themselves from this very uncomfortable position.

At the same time, the huge rise in UCAD from 4.50 to 10.75 over the last 3 trading days IMO may have been significant efforts by the shorts to cover the ucad shares they are responsible for as dividends. As an earlier post of mine referenced, it is cheaper to cover ucad than cmkx right now based on the ratio. And if the shorts are trying to buy time, they may try to cover with ucad first. Today would seem to support that effort. Basically it's happening on two fronts IMO -- try to drive cmkx down on huge volume to scare people into selling while trying to cover the ucad dividends as best they can (and at a cheaper rate than cmkx).

Now as to how this works for CIM, I have NOOOOOOO idea. Won't THAT be interesting (or maybe not, who knows).

Again, this is all speculation based on my opinion on naked shorting. A lot of people have many theories on why the shorts may either be covered or there are other means of covering them. Anything is possible at this stage and I would rule out nothing. My personal opinion though is that the coincidence is way too great that a mock "selloff" would happen the day before the ucad dividend distribution as well as a meteoric rise in ucad's price in the three prior trading days to the dividend distribution.

Those are my opinions ... for now. Let's see how things continue.