Kerry was not an unknown coming into this debate, he was a known that nobody liked. Bush had painted him a flip-flopper without strong convictions and Kerry did nothing to dispel that. He will probably get a bounce just on not being as unappealing as he's been throughout his entire campaign. I expected him to be much more over the top in his attacks on Bush and the fact that he kept himself under control definitely helps him.
Having said that you can sound eloquent in a debate, you can look calm and comfortable in a debate, and that's good, but you can't change who you are, what you stand for, what your record is, etc. That's why I think Dems are getting a little carried away about this "victory" for Kerry. The presidency isn't about which candidate can more articulately repeat the same 2 or 3 points for 90 minutes. I think that's why debates historically don't cause dramatic swings in the polls.
