MARKET THOUGHTS AND IM TAKING VACATION
Now back in June i said the DOW should see a test of near the 10000 level before the end of summer. The last day of summer is here, the Dow is @ the 9820 level.
here, the Dow is @ the 9820 level.
The environment when i made that call was gloom and doom all the pundits and talking boxes on T.V. where calling for the dip back to 6800...they were very wrong. Now, the same pundits and even "our trusted" leaders are saying the recession is over. The market is a forward looking indicator so much of this is priced in, but all the talking boxes and everyone else is a Bull now.
This might be time, to take a step back maybe take some profits and focus on positioning, if the market does dip in the short term next few weeks to months, October has produced some of the worst market crashes and historically a terrible month for the markets. However, this is a stock pickers market and as we have demonstrated in the past we can find bulls even in the worst markets. Now the market can continue to break 10k in the next days to weeks and make a run at 10250 and if it ever broke 10500 a gap to 11000 area would happen on technicals alone, I don't think this will happen to maybe till the spring 2010. Now, Im not thinking of a major plunger to set us back to the march lows, but i wouldn't rule out a dip back to 8000s.
SUPPORT DOW
9500 9325 9034 8800 8500 8200
Ill be very busy this week with relaxing, need a recharge but just wanted to send my thoughts out...
cheers
PS. one thing i would like to say is don't forget whats going on still with commercial real estate and what goes on with the fed meeting this week. By then we will have a clear short term direction in place whether it be a reversal or a continuation.
AI
