SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Two-timer]

FYI...I posted McHugh's analysis on POKERSAM's site earlier. Sure would be interested in your thoughts, as well. TIA. Two
=========
Prices continue to follow the exact path we have been annotating for a Rising Bearish Wedge termination pattern for the final wave C-up for this Bear Market rally that started back in March 2009. This pattern has served us well so far in tracking prices. This week's large price rally follows that pattern closely. If a Rising Wedge is occurring, each of the five component waves should be three wave moves. So far we can label three waves for the first two component waves, (A) up and (B) down. The rally from the September 2nd bottom has seen wave a-up and b-down of (C ) up of C-u p. This week's rally looks to be a good portion of wave c-up of (C ) up. The upper boundary of this Rising Wedge suggests wave (C ) up could top around 1,080 to 1,100 in the S&P500, to be followed by a wave (D) corrective decline. Wave (E) up of C-up will eventually finish (B) up. There is also the possibility that this pattern will morph into something else, but so far so good. The 30 and 60 minute Full Stochastics suggest an overbought market exists very short-term, meaning markets are vulnerable to a short-term decline, while the 15 minute FS gives indecisive guidance.

Our next phi mate turn date is approaching, around September 25th +/- a few days. There is an associated Fibonacci Cluster turn window with several (7) prior tops or bottoms a Fibonacci number of trading days from this window, with many of those prior turns major turns, suggesting this coming late September turn could be meaningful. It is hard to tell at this point whether it will be the top of wave C-up and (B) up, or the top of (C ) up, or whether it will be a bottom, perhaps wave (D) down and mark the kickoff to a final large price move, wave (E) up.