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Re: abh3vt post# 3532

Tuesday, 09/15/2009 9:41:41 PM

Tuesday, September 15, 2009 9:41:41 PM

Post# of 94785
abh3vt

I don't think it's accurate to take CCGY's q2 results and annualize them to get a forward PE of 16 (which is still less than GU's by far). This is a company with a 100% capacity expansion coming online in a few weeks that dramatically alters it's revenue and earnings capabilities.


You also ask: "look at the problems that GU (Gushan) has been having...How will CCGY be able to avoid some of the macro issues that GU is describing?"

The answer is- CCGY is already doing that by making a move into specialty chemicals. In fact the majority of their revenues for the next 6 months are likely to be in specialty chemicals (some of it for export to the West) per the conf. call. Two of their larger and more recent customers from last q are NYSE listed companies. GU is far more locked into biodiesel and doesn't have that flexibility at this time.

CCGY saw the writing on the wall a year ago. See article:
China Clean Energy Shifts Away From Biodiesel.

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKPEK17720220080507?symbol=CCGY.OB&pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0


On a trailing basis, CCGY's PE is high I agree. But looking forward it's damn cheap if they only make half what they predicted from this new plant last year.


“The 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China. Invest accordingly.”

Warren Buffett

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