here is a little run down.. IMO
Yasheng Group (YHGG) operates in a market (food) which will continue
expanding at least for the next 40 years in the region. Chinese
population will increase nearly 30% in this period. Neighboring
countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan are already facing severe food
shortages and their combined population is projected to double (400
million) in next 30 years. It will not take long before India too
finds herself in similar situation. Middle eastern countries have been
leasing/buying hundreds of thousands of acres of land in other
countries for commercial farming to provide for their own populations.
For all these countries China and central Asian states are the
cheapest and the most convenient sources for food imports. With YHGG's
desire to expand in global market, I believe it sits on huge potential
for growth in the long term.
YHGG is already making profit for the last five years with net profit
margin of 10.3% in 2008 (although it marginally dropped from 10.8% a
year before). I don't see any major threats to its profit margin
unless there are some time-sensitive government incentives that I have
no information about. I see YHGG to trade in $6-7 range in next 2-5
years if everything goes fine and it is able to get itself listed on
major American markets in next 16 months or so.
As far as YASH is concerned, I see something big coming. What else
could be the reason for the "accredited investor" to buy 350,877
shares at $0.57 on Aug. 17th and then another 150,060 shares for $0.37
each on Aug. 31st when closing price was $0.30. According to the
agreement, the same investor still has to buy shares worth another
$150,000.
Considering intentions of the "accredited investor," upbeat
shareholders' sentiment and stock exchange agreement with YHGG, I
think YASH has potential to go up to $0.6 at least once before the
year ends. I see there could be some profit taking above $0.30 though
and for some weird reason I think it could be down 10-15% tomorrow
morning but I will be happy to be wrong :)