Tuesday, September 08, 2009 2:42:12 PM
I agree with most of your positions lately that there is no deal already completed and is extremely unlikely for one to get finalized before drilling results. At least until the first two wells are made public.
After these first two wells, all bets are off. I still hope we wait 4 to 6 months at a minimum, to get a better idea of the amount of oil that can be proved up but I am open to offers....lol.
I do, however, disagree with your comments regarding the "pie in the sky" estimates. It is ridiculous, as you state, to compare Addax with ERHE when it comes to a deal as a percentage or premium over their market value but the estimated price points aren’t so ridiculous down the road. ERHE is at a different stage in their business model and they are priced accordingly (75 cent range). ERHE is about to go through the transition into the next phase however, and that is where the pie in the sky numbers aren’t so ridiculous. I really don’t know where the price supports will be created after ERHE has it’s first or second oil discovery but I am fairly confident it will be at a much higher level than our current trading range. Once it hits those levels, then maybe the “pie in the sky” deal numbers won’t be at such a high premium percentage wise. I think there have been several sound examples of how the pie in the sky numbers are justified (after proven), but it may take more time and more holes punched to get up to the higher valuations thrown around.
GLTA
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