Well Corp. It is pretty amazing. Most stocks out there anybody is scraping and digging to find a crumb, or some kind of edge to know when news is coming before anyone else. So, they can load up and be "in" before a stock takes off on news. But nooooooooooooooooooope. Not here.
Today we uncovered that very news in finding that Drinks has contracted Lion Brewing before ANYBODY else knows about it. Before a press release is issued where anybody paying attention would realize the magnitude of the news. Wanna know why so important?
These labels are approved RIGHT BEFORE the beer goes into production. These guys are ramped and ready to go and just waiting for the word that they have approval to package and go with approved print.
As it stands, MI has a populus of right at 10 million. NY alone picks up almost double that at 19.5 million. The total populus of these 8 additional states that Lion Brewing services is 74.2 million. When you factor in that MA Distribution crosses state lines in the Northeast, then as expected, these 8 states are like adding 8 additional Michigans to the mix at about 80 million people. Heck, NY, PA, and OH alone are 44 million people. These are staggering to grab early on in the process.
JPK already indicated that MI in year one is expected to do at or above $10 million and at or above $20 million in year two. Any other 5 Kid Rock states are estimated again to do $20 million in first year sales. So, for the sake of argument, any state could easily do $4 million on average. BUT! And a big BUT! The states of CA, NY, NJ, OH, PA, TX, for instance, are expected to do far beyond that in perhaps the $10-$20 million area per state for sales right off the bat. Heck, take the NY State Fair as I mentioned before at 1.2 million visitors. The beer could easily do $1 million in sales just from this singular event with 50000-60000 fans having 2-3 beers a piece. Some more, some less. That "event" is 200 miles away from 15 million people in NYC who haven't even had a drop of beer yet. Of course, a heavy Kid Rock state where country is king outside of the city.
So it's pretty easy to see where an average of $4 million per state and adding 8 more states would ordinarily be expected to add $32 million to sales can now add upwards of $50 million in sales on top of MI's $10-$20 million in sales.
Many "assumed" Drinks would be strapped by saturating MI first and then moving on to nationwide distribution afterwards. That is no longer the case with Lion on board. In fact, I see no reason why Drinks can't be sitting on an easy $70-$80 million in sales just from these 9 states going out 12-18 months tops. After all, I believe Lion can or is pushing out 750,000 bottles per day. That equates to 11.4 million cases a year, or roughly $180-$190 million in sales. So, we are easily accomodated here.
As far as these numbers go, they ARE actually a shade low for now. If anyone recalls, JPK said he expected at least a 2% market share in MI alone from the beer sales. That was expected to increase in the next 12 months. The remainder of the country should see numbers in the 1-2% market share range on average. Last year, those 9 states Drinks has manufacturing and distribution in consumed over 610,000,000 cases of beer. The numbers I used break down to right about 5 million cases sold in Badass for the 9 states.
That means we pick up 8/10ths of 1% market share overall when JPK already said 2-4% in MI alone. That means these numbers equate to roughly 1/2 of 1% market share, or, 1/2 of what they will be.
