LOL, Fred Hickey's 7/4 letter was 8 pages of deep bearishness, and you managed to quote the only slightly bullish paragraphs in it.
How about these quotes:
"Unless there's an explosion in PC demand in Q3 (a highly unlikely outcome at this point), there's NO chance that Intel will be able to make the second half earnings estimates. In two weeks they'l have to guide lower."
"I've been hearing persistent reports of a growing cell phone inventory problem, particularly in Asia. Texas Instruments has been a beneficiary of the inventory buildup. Second half results will likely be hurt. A warning ... could come on 7/22."
"Business at Cisco turned down significantly in recent weeks according to my sources. Juniper is likely to miss the quarter's estimates and guide lower for the remainder of the year. The whole networking equipment market has taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent weeks."
"Renewed weakness in all major semiconductor end markets has even begun to impact the order flow of the Taiwanese foundry giants, UMC and TSMC. I'm told that UMC will likely announce capital spending cutbacks within the next couple of weeks."
"Even with another massive IBM restructuring charge and thousands of layoffs, IBM's second half and 2003 estimates are a joke. They have to come down".
Given Hickey's excellent track record the past 2 years, I would NOT advise going long any tech the next couple of weeks. If Hickey's right, it could be nasty.
AI
