ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[tryoty]

Risked vs. unrisked reserves...

The best definition I could find is this:

"Unrisked reserves are those estimated to be
recoverable in the case of a successful well. The
estimate is not adjusted for level of confidence but
accurately reflects the available data".

Risked reserves are, by the above definition, adjusted based on a confidence level for success. If the seismic shows a prospect of billion barrels, but there's a only a 50% probability that it's oil vs. gas, then the Risked Reserves would be stated as 500M barrels... actually closer to 600M barrels because the gas has a BOE value.

I have no idea how they calculate that probability, but I know that the success at OBO-1 proved a working hydrocarbon kitchen that had Jeff Schrull giddy as hell. His words "the success at OBO-1 de-risked the entire zone".

My expectations start at the unrisked numbers and go up from there. These types of estimates are conservative by nature.