the reason why I believe the market is eventually headed much lower is that this is an income-less "recovery". Right now, companies are reporting better numbers but they are getting those numbers up by trimming costs, namely laying off workers. Real unemployment is still high, with millions who have given up looking for work in addition to the newly unemployed. Mortgage defaults are 13% and rising. This can only go on for so long before companies have been trimmed to the bone. The current theme is "revenues down, but "company x" beats expectations from cost cutting (lasying off workers)." With consumers in trouble with mortgage and car payments, and the lack of jobs, sooner or later the air will come out. Throw in the typically dicey market months of Sept and October, perhaps a widecard like a bad flu season and things could get ugly. It is impossible to predict how long it may take, however, and just like Bush W did, I believe the O admin is pulling strings to keep the markets afloat. I know I dont want to be the last one looking for a chair when the music stops. I am mostly cash with some play money for the microcap market.
JMVHO
