TROPICS GOING TO BE BIG NEWS OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS
FROM HURRICANE TRACK.COM
It is time to pay closer attention to the Atlantic Basin and its growing areas of concern. I say concern because it is time to take notice of what is going on out there and be prepared for it. I am not talking about just the United States either- remember, we have quite a few land masses out there in the Basin. Here's what we have...
TD2 should become a tropical storm later today if it is not one already. It is not of much concern right now and should avoid the Lesser Antilles as it moves west over the next five days. Beyond that time period, we will just have to see if it survives a trip through some stronger upper level winds before worrying where it ends up. There's plenty of time to monitor its progress and thus far, it looks to remain fairly weak.
The other developing story will be a new tropical cyclone taking shape right now off the coast of Africa. The GFS computer model in particular has been remarkably consistent with its forecast of a long-track system in the Atlantic. The tropical wave that would be "the one" is now off the coast of western Africa and is already looking better organized as each hour passes. It should become a tropical depression within the next two days and rapidly strengthen beyond that. My first concern is for the Lesser Antilles. From the looks of the steering patterns, an almost due-west track seems likely for this system once it gets going. This would put it in the vicinity of the Windwards and Leewards in about a week- maybe less. I figured people would want as much notice as possible just in case the computer modeling is even close to spot on. Run after run after run of the GFS shows this system plowing through the eastern Caribbean. Perhaps the model will be wrong, but it did a similar job of accurately forecasting the genesis and track of powerful hurricane Dean in 2007. So if you live in or are planning a trip to the Lesser Antilles and surrounding region, pay close attention to the tropics from now on. We have the luxury of seeing the possible future with computer guidance and related technology, there should be no suprises in this day and age.
Lastly, a tropical wave crossing the Antilles now should continue generally WNW and in to the Gulf of Mexico early next week. We'll see if it blossoms and develops more. This is where model guidance is tough because some show development, others do not. It is a feature to watch until it interacts with land and dies away. Its passage through the Caribbean will bring sporadic showers and thunderstorms but otherwise not much more than that.
AI
