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Tuesday, August 04, 2009 8:28:17 AM
I would expect there will be some clarification on the next conference call, but who knows.
I believe it would be helpful to know:
- How DA is compensated? (fixed amount per quantity sold, % of gross sales, % of gross profit, something else)
- What ownership/contractual rights DA has to the beer and future or related products?
- What costs DA is required to bear beyond its own labor costs?
- What costs other participants will bear?
- Are there minimum spends (as dollar amount or %) for marketing and general promotion?
- Increases in DA labor/SG&A exclusively or primarily related to the beer.
And of course even with all the above information, you still have to know what kind of sales the beer is enjoying, as well as how all the rest of the product line is performing. I suspect some of this information, and perhaps all of it, may be considered "proprietary" by the company and may only be available in aggregated form when the financial reports are filed for the affected quarters, which means not learning much until near year end at best and probably well into 2010.
Bottom line, while all of this information is helpful, for me the really important information is in the financial statements. I don't buy the "run away stock price" theories of investing. As I pointed out with HANS, a major success story, IMHO profits and sales tend to be a leading indicator of stock price performance, not a lagging one.
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
GEORGE SANTAYANA
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