National Storm Management Inc (NSMG)

[Manchild1]

Quite pattern may be coming to an end - from www.hurricaneTrack.com

the quiet pattern may be coming to an end as we move through August. The reason? It appears from looking at several of the more reliable global comptuer models that a more favorable upper level wind environment is about to move in to the Atlantic Basin. We can see some evidence of this in the east Pacific. Right now, there are two large areas of deep convection trying to organize in to tropical cylcones. The favorable conditions that is allowing that development will gradually move eastward and in to the western Atlantic and beyond. It is going to take a few more days but the models show two important changes.

1. Looking at the ECMWF model we can see that sea level pressures are likely to lower so that surface winds will not be as brisk across the Caribbean Sea. This allows for more convergence of air at the surface and thus an increase in tropical convection.

2. The latest GFS MJO forecast for upper level conditions indicates a period of favorable upward motion coming in to the Atlantic Basin. This would allow for a lessening of the strong upper level winds that have been the dominate force so far this season. We may also see a decrease in dry, dusty air coming off of Africa too. All of this adds up to suggesting, and I have to emphasize suggesting, a more favorable pattern evolving.