Wednesday, July 29, 2009 7:22:58 AM
1/
Pacific Growth Equity's revenue projections for JAV
Javelin Pharmaceuticals - Dyloject Revenue Build in 1000's
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Projected Dyloject Revenue $2,700 $16,686 $28,644 $131,335 $222,581 $303,778
starting 2011, thats when the US kicks in and you can see thats where the money is cause overall EU dyloject sales barely move over the 28,644 in 2011, 2012, or 2013
For example, in 2012, Total EU sales are $32,212, while US estimates in 2012 are $190,369.
in 2013 total EU sales estimates are $32,229 while US estimates are $271,538
If JAV even does 30% of these estimates, the stock is sickeningly undervalued, and it doesn't even take into effect Ereska sales
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks...
2/
Why US market for dyloject bigger than EU
"Germany and UK basically account for 90 percent of sales of pain meds in EU. Germany has 80 million people and Uk 60 million. Initially this is only half the US population.
Secondly Uk has approx. 950 hospitals / Germany about 1500 - US has 5,906 hospitals as of 2007 - dont know the current figure.
Thirdly - the gold standard of post op is in the US. While the hospitals may form some kind of comp - America has HMO'S and PPO'S- PPO's allow doctors to perform out of offices and private pain clinics - AND those far outnumber anything in the EU.
In 2008 - the US had some astounding private clinic number - i want to say close to 70,000 but dont quote me.
Ketoralac and Morphine are standard pain injections in the US post op and emergency room. Dynastat from Pfizer did 300 million at it's peak, Paracoxib by Upjohn never made it to market was projected to take 30 percent share and do 400 million.
Emergency room visits in US outnumber EU 6.6 to 1.
Elective surgery (plastic and otherwise) US outnumbers
EU 4.5 to 1
Non-elective surgeries outnumber 3.4 to 1 "
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?m=te&bn=72309&tid=62974&mid=62974&tof=26&frt=2#62974
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