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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR: Tuesday, July 28, 2009

7:45 AM ET. July 25 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales

Key Market Reports and Commentary for Tuesday

Tuesday, July 28, 2009 8:44 AM

From:
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T U E S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, July 28, 2009

7:45 AM ET. July 25 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales

Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous +0.5%)

Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous -0.3%)

8:55 AM ET. July 25 Redbook Index

MoM % Change (previous -1.7%)

12MonChgPct (previous -5.7%)

52WkChgPct (previous -5.8%)

9:00 AM ET. May Case-Shiller Home Price Index

10-City Index, Yearly (previous -18%)

20-City Index, Yearly (expected -17.9%; previous -18.1%)

10:00 AM ET. July Richmond Fed Survey

Manufacturing Index (previous 6)

Retail Revenues Index (previous –18)

Services Revenue Index (previous –26)

Shipments Index (previous 2)

10:00 AM ET. July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer Confidence Index (expected 49.2; previous 49.3)

Expectation Index (previous 65.5)

Present Situation Index (previous 24.8)

4:30 PM ET. July 24 API Oil Industry Report

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.1M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.33M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +147K)

Refinery Runs (previous 84%)

5:00 PM ET. July 25 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index (previous –50)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Monday that new home sales rose by 11% over the previous month in June, beating trade expectations. However, Wall Street reacted with a yawn after completing an amazing run the past two weeks indicating that the financial markets might be overdue for a pause or brief period of consolidation. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 62% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 1635.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1495.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1609.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1635.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1556.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1495.45. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 3.75 pts. at 1595.75 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1044.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 922.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 983.70. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1044.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 955.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 922.93. The September S&P 500 Index was down 3.90 pts. at 976.00 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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September T-bonds were modestly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 113-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 114-30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113-22. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
September crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.81 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.99. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25. First support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 64.81. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 63.76.
September heating oil was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 192.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 183.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 192.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 173.59. Second support is 20-day moving average crossing at 168.89.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 197.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 191.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 197.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 181.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.09.
September Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.696. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.696 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.045. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.261. First support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 3.696. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.366. CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below trading range support crossing at 78.83. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the overnight decline, last September's low crossing at 78.32 is the next downside target. Multiple closes below 78.83 would confirm a downside breakout of this summer's trading range and could open the door for a larger-degree decline into August. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.75. First support is the overnight low crossing at 78.42. Second support is last September's low crossing at 78.32.
The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, June's high crossing at 143.270 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.910 would temper the near-
term friendly outlook in the market. From a broad perspective, September needs to close above 143.270 or below 137.360 to confirm a breakout of this summer's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 143.060. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 143.270. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.991. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.909.
The September British Pound was higher overnight while consolidating above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6370. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, June's high crossing at 1.6742 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.6263 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The September British Pound remains locked within a trading range that began in June. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 1.6742 or below 1.5795 are needed to confirm a trading range breakout and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.6585. Second resistance is trading range resistance crossing at 1.6742. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6370. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6263.

The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends this summer's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish again hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, trading range resistance crossing at .9449 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9290 would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market. September needs to close above .9449 or below .9075 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at .9425. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9449. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9350. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9290.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and has spiked above June's high crossing at 92.75 as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing at 95.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 93.06. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 95.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.71.
The September Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of its recent decline but remains below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at .10320 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .10727 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10614. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10727. First support is Monday's low crossing at .10486. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10320.
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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
August gold was slightly higher in quiet trading overnight as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 966.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 935.60 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 960.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 966.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 947.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 935.60.
September silver was higher overnight as is extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 14.335 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.380 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 14.095. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.335. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.630. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.380.
September copper was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 259.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 236.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 257.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 259.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 248.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 236.63. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

September coffee closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 50% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 12.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower due to profit taking on Monday but remains above broken resistance marked by June's high crossing at 28.58. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, last August's high crossing at 29.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends this year's rally. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-
range close set the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 19.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October cotton closed lower on Monday as it extends last Friday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.23. However, a short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 53.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.29 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Trade Stocks, Futures, And Forex With Up To 80% Accuracy

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

September corn was higher overnight as it extends Monday's short covering rebound. The mid-
range close overnight sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins. With a benign weather pattern continuing across the Midwest and Delta, it will be difficult to sustain any rallies. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. However, it will take closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.42 1/4 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this summer's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.28 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.42 1/4. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.04. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.00.
September wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this summer's decline, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.12. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 3/4-cents at 5.51 3/4.

September Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.60 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September renews this month's decline, last December's low crossing at 5.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 30th gap crossing at 5.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 5.78. Second resistance is the June 30th gap crossing at 5.90. First support is today's low crossing at 5.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.44.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, March's low crossing at 5.82 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.26 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.09 3/4. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 5.88. Second support is March's low crossing at 5.82 1/2.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
August soybeans were sharply higher overnight due to short covering as it extends last week's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.17 1/2. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the short covering rally off this month's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.47 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 9.21 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10.43 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.47. First support is this month's low crossing at 9.70 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 9.21 1/2.
September soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 297.20. The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.40 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 274.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 304.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 312.40. First support is this month's low crossing at 285.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 274.60.
September soybean oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, this month's low crossing at 32.29 is the next upside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 35.57 are needed to renew the rally off this month's low. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.53. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 35.57. First support is Monday's low crossing at 33.56. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 32.29. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

August hogs closed up $0.12 at $59.17.

August hogs closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's decline, June's low crossing at 57.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.13. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.59. First support is today's low crossing at 57.90. Second support is June's low crossing at 57.40.
August bellies closed up $0.92 at $62.22.

August bellies closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.79. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, the June 2nd gap crossing at 68.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 67.75. Second resistance is the June 2nd gap crossing at 68.90. First support is today's low crossing at 60.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.34.
August cattle closed up $0.17 at 84.70.

August cattle closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 82.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.95. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.40. First support is today's low crossing at 83.95. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 82.95.
August feeder cattle closed down $0.15 at $102.40.

August Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it extends last week's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.12. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 101.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 103.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. _____________________________________________________________________

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