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Re: techcharter post# 3556

Thursday, 09/09/2004 1:14:27 AM

Thursday, September 09, 2004 1:14:27 AM

Post# of 51876
tech, "decompose" good term for what you suggest. quite similar to what i try to do. i believe the various averages are all attempts to portray market action correctly but are handicapped by either how they are constructed (cap weighted, price weighted, unweighted (even that isn't perfect),or how broad or narrow the list of component equities are. i try to see the direction suggested by the largest group of market indexes and sector indexes plus many key stocks to get a feel.
i would disagree that a flight to quality has the INDU and SP500 acting stronger than NDX/NASD/SOX. i believe it's more a case of tech fear selling alone. too many other indexes, SP small cap,SP midcap (both could not be called a list of quality stocks), V Line (unweighted and a favorite of mine to watch), Dow Trans (very strong), Dow Utilities (same) are all acting very well. even stocks/indexes that could be considered in the tech group (maybe) like the telecom index (etf is IYZ) just made a new high for the yr today. my perception/guess is that NDX/NASD/SOX indexes, the frontrunners in the incredible bubble yrs, are still perceived as the proxy for the total market. IMO a mistake. i also think that QQQ, one of the most successful product introductions of all time and a favorite of traders, has inflated the importance of watching NDX etc to determine the health of the markets.

aire







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