Lehman ABS CorTS 2001-08 7.375% General Motors (CCYPQ)

[marayatano]

Enterprise: Sorry no PM capabilities.
"WAMU preferred has evidence that they will have recovery. That is the difference between the two."

I was responding to someone comparing WAMPQ and LEHPQ. They are both very similar. Both $1,000 par value, both preferred, etc. LEHPQ was trading at $1'ish while WAMPQ was trading at $19'ish.

Wamu is not far from being paid a high percentage if not full par.

LEHPQ on the other hand, is VERY FAR OUT OF THE MONEY. It is NOT even close. Also, see post: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39547420

As for the Trust preferreds (you referred to as TOPrS), it is possible, BUT two factors. 1. A long orderly wind down (which I think is possible so long as the (SENIOR) Creditors are willing to wait. 2. DERIVATIVES.

"Collection fom derivatives. Marsal said they collected $16bil of $27.1bil that they are owed from derivatives. This is only 1% of all derivatives and 99% have not been sorted out yet."

Derivatives is the make it or break it. Alvarez & Marsel has only unwound 1% of the derivatives and recovery approx. 50 plus % (according some on the board). I not into all the cheer leading since my money is involved. What people on the Board do not realize is that it can go either way. LEH can owe a counter party or LEH is owed from a counter party. The board thinks that all counter parties owe LEH.

During the creditors meeting, Alvarez & Marsel was quoted as saying they were "scared" of what derivatives needs to be unwound. There is a transcript somewhere.


As for Wamu, they have a more likely chance of having recovery all the way to common shareholders. I own no common though, only preferreds. Wamu debt is trading at 80 plus cents on the dollar. THAT IS VERY HIGH AS YOU KNOW. The Creditors are confident in recovery. To me, Wamu paper is too high, but since only conservative people like bonds, I would it is a good price for them. (The $4.4 billion, soon to be recovered, means Wamu paper is 100% paid off.)

During the entire BK process, Wamu and the creditors committee have been helping each other since the beginning, even in Court. There have been NO disputs between Wamu and its creditors.

All Wamu needs is to recovery the $4.4 billion. If they do, Wamu Trust preferreds are in the money. If Wamu gets their tax refunds, regular preferreds are in the money with a very high percentage. If Wamu recovers their trademark, copyright or patent suit, preferreds get full value and common has some recovery. Wamu is way ahead of the game.

The board consensus is that if JP Morgan goes through discovery, the more likely they will settle w/ Wamu.

Today, JP Morgan lost their motion for reconsideration regarding discovery which is huge.

Bottom line: Wamu is very transparent and chugging along. Lehman has many variables right now. Derivatives is the largest unknown. Lehman may take several years to unwind. I am waiting on more transparency.

Sorry for the rambling, I was trying to be as brief as possible.

The above is strictly my opinion.