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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Monday

Monday, July 27, 2009 8:14 AM

From:
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M O N D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 27, 2009

10:00 AM ET. June New Home Sales

Overall Sales (previous 342K)

Percent Change (previous -0.6%)

10:30 AM ET. July Dallas Fed Mfg Outlook Survey

Business Activity Index (previous -20.4)

Manufacturing Production Index (previous –7)

12:00 PM ET. June Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index

Manufacturing Index (MoM) (previous -3.1%)

Manufacturing Index (YoY) (previous -24.4%)

Auto Output Index (MoM) (previous -10.7%)

Auto Output Index (YoY) (previous -39.2%)

Machinery Output Index (MoM) (previous -3.3%)

Machinery Output Index (YoY) (previous -26.9%)

Resource Output Index (MoM) (previous +0.2%)

Resource Output Index (YoY) (previous -10%)

Steel Output Index (MoM) (previous -2.2%)

Steel Output Index (YoY) (previous -36.8%)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 62% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 1635.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1489.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1609.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1635.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1542.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1489.81. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 8.25 pts. at 1605.50 as of 5:59 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If September extends the rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1044.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 919.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 983.70. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1044.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 948.13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 919.99. The September S&P 500 Index was up 3.90 pts. at 981.70 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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September T-bonds were lower overnight and are poised to renew this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 113-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-05 would confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 115-13. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 113-22. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
September crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.95 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 68.99. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.95. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 63.76.
September heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 192.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 182.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 192.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 170.89. Second support is 20-day moving average crossing at 168.98.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 197.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 191.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 197.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 178.69. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.01.
September Henry natural gas was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.706. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.706 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.045. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.261. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.706. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.366. CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight and is trading below trading range support crossing at 78.83. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective, the September Dollar needs to close above 81.97 or below 78.83 to confirm a breakout of June's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.82. First support last Thursday's low crossing at 78.58. Second support is last September's low crossing at 78.32.
The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, June's high crossing at 143.270 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.814 would temper the near-
term friendly outlook in the market. From a broad perspective, September needs to close above 143.270 or below 137.360 to confirm a breakout of this summer's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 142.970. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 143.270. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.694. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.814.
The September British Pound was higher overnight while consolidating above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6365. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, June's high crossing at 1.6742 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.6263 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The September British Pound remains locked within a trading range that began in June. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 1.6742 or below 1.5795 are needed to confirm a trading range breakout and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1.6585. Second resistance is trading range resistance crossing at 1.6742. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6365. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.6263.

The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off June's low, trading range resistance crossing at .9449 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9283 would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market. September needs to close above .9449 or below .9075 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at .9425. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .9449. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9331. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9283.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, June's high crossing at 92.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 92.68. Second resistance is the June high crossing at 92.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.38.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight and poised to extend last week's decline below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at .10320 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .10620 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at .10606. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10620. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .10497. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10320.
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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
August gold was higher overnight and poised to extend this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 966.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 935.10 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 958.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 966.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 944.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 935.10.
September silver was higher overnight as is extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 14.335 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.381 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 14.090. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 14.335. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.521. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.381.
September copper was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of last summer's decline crossing at 259.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 235.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 257.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 259.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 245.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 235.29. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food

September coffee closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally, the 50% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 12.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
September cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it extends this week's rally above June's high crossing at 28.58. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are neutral hinting that a double top with June's high might be forming. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this month's rally, last August's high crossing at 29.73 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 19.73 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 17.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 15.61.
October cotton closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.11 confirming that a double top with May's high has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 56.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Trade Stocks, Futures, And Forex With Up To 80% Accuracy

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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains

September corn was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.20 3/4. The mid-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins. The market has likely entered a period of consolidation as traders have to deal with favorable growing conditions over much of the Corn Belt, which are being somewhat offset by the slow maturing of this year's crop due to below normal temps. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.42 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this summer's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.31 1/4. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.04. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.00.
September wheat was fractionally higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this summer's decline, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.53 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.12. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
September Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 1/2-cents at 5.49.

September Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September renews this month's decline, last December's low crossing at 5.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 30th gap crossing at 5.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.78. Second resistance is the June 30th gap crossing at 5.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.44.
September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, March's low crossing at 5.82 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.11 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 6.05 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.11 1/4. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 5.88. Second support is March's low crossing at 5.82 1/2.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
August soybeans were lower overnight due to light profit taking but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.17. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If August extends the short covering rally off this month's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.51 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.51 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 9.21 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 10.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.51 1/4. First support is this month's low crossing at 9.70 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 9.21 1/2.
August soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range. The mid-range close overnight set the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 341.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 288.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 330.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 341.50. First support is this month's low crossing at 306.40. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 288.30.
August soybean oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 33.35 then this month's low crossing at 32.14 are the next upside targets. Closes above last week's high crossing at 35.53 are needed to renew the rally off this month's low. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.35. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 35.53. First support is the overnight low crossing at 33.57. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 33.35. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock

August hogs closed down $1.90 at $59.05.

August hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 57.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.06. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.98. First support is today's low crossing at 59.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 57.40.
August bellies closed down $2.00 at $61.30.

August bellies closed lower on Friday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.82 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, the June 2nd gap crossing at 68.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 67.75. Second resistance is the June 2nd gap crossing at 68.90. First support is today's low crossing at 61.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.21.
August cattle closed down $0.50 at 84.52.

August cattle closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.84 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 82.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.41 would temper the near-
term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.41. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 86.87. First support is today's low crossing at 84.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 82.95.
August feeder cattle closed up $0.17 at $102.55.

August Feeder cattle closed higher due to short covering on Friday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 101.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 103.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. _____________________________________________________________________

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