Saturday, July 25, 2009 3:18:46 PM
A little while ago I posted something that addresses exactly what you are talking about. I will repost the picture here:
Steve (CEO) presented this image at the Investor Conference in June.
It shows the sales multiples for 11 different beverage companies that have been bought out since 2002. Six of these 11 transactions occurred in the last 2 years. Hence, the data is recent and applicable to our current situation. Also, note that all the companies above are all in the 'functional beverages' industry.
My valuation model that I presented yesterday (post #1286) is based on these sales multiples.
I chose to do a high (10x), medium (7x), and low (4x) based on this slide.
Because the slide was presented to investors by CSUH CEO, I consider the information to be relevant indicator of the beverage industry and fair valuations.
Vitamin Water was the category creator and leader in functional beverages. It posted the highest valuation, at 10x sales.
The median, however, is around 4x. Hence why I chose to do multiple valuations (high, medium, and low).
The multiple scenarios allow individual investors to make up their own minds as to what sales multiple should be used. The commonality amongst all three valuations is that we are currently overvalued. I believe we are due for a correction.
Shau-dere? Shau-dere? It's "chowdah!" Say it right!
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