Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[Jim Mullens]

Jack, Re: "...series of EPS projections for Q using a set of assumptions that would provide a picture of the impact of WCDMA market share." And, "The percentage change in EPS among the three cases may be surprisingly low to some"

You're correct, I posted this sometime back on SI-

Note that my 2004 est is considerably lower than the Q's current guidance (handset sales increases, ASPs increasing rather than decreasing). Also, the 2005 EPS is close to what S&P is now forecasting.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SI MOD 04 02 24 Qualcomm’s WCDMA Chipset market share EPS

WCDMA Chipset market share- EPS sensitivity analysis.


Prior Post with Q WCDMA Chipset market share growing to 50%

Qualcomm EPS forecast- ( forecast based on CY metrics)
...........QTL........QCT..........TOTAL
2003A $0.78.....$0.65.........$1.43- adjusted to move $57M QTL accrual from Dec 2003 to Sept 2003
2004.....1.12.......0.80............1.92
2005.....1.60.......1.00............2.60
2006.....2.12.......1.32............3.45
2007.....2.98.......1.84............4.826 35+% CAGR

QTL and QCT EPS at various WCDMA mkt share percentages

.............50%..................33%............25%

2003A $1.43- 25%......
2004.....1.92- 35%
2005.....2.60- 50%......2.54............2.51
2006.....3.45..................3.37............3.32
2007.....4.83..................4.63............4.54

The above model uses an averages ASP for all Qualcomm technologies. A more sophisticated model would reflect specific ASPs for each (1x, EV-DO/ DV, WCDMA), something to do next.